The NFC West was supposed to be a contentious division last season, but between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers, not between the 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks. The books are again projecting this division as a two-team race. Let’s dive into the 2023 NFC West preview as we make our 2023 NFL predictions, including our NFC West winner prediction, and identify the top futures picks.
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NFL Predictions 2023: NFC West Preview & Futures Picks (July 21)
NFC West Winner Odds
NFC West Preview: The Favorite
Few teams were more dominant than the San Francisco 49ers last season. They ended the regular season ranked fourth in offensive expected points added (EPA) per play and first in defensive EPA per play. They achieved this despite starting three quarterbacks: Trey Lance, Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy. Lance and Purdy are still in town, but Garoppolo is gone, and Sam Darnold arrived in the offseason. Both Purdy and Lance suffered season-ending injuries that could affect how much work they can put in before the season begins. Purdy and Darnold were both top-six quarterbacks in EPA per play last season among signal-callers to play at least 100 snaps, so the 49ers should be fine under center.
Along with the changes at quarterback, this year's 49ers will look quite different than they did in 2022 -- but not enough to hurt them much. Gone are tackle Mike McGlinchey and his steady 71.5 PFF grade, along with defensive ends Samson Ebukam and Charles Omenihu, both of whom owned grades just south of 70. The secondary lost safety Jimmie Ward and cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, and the linebacker room lost Azeez Al-Shaair. The 49ers lost more than they gained in free agency, but they picked up an excellent rusher in defensive tackle Javon Hargrave and slot cornerback Isaiah Oliver, both of whom recorded PFF grades north of 78.
Despite the losses, the key pieces of this team all remain: head coach Kyle Shanahan; an electric cast of offensive playmakers that includes Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle; a massive offensive line anchored by star tackle Trent Williams; and an efficient, versatile set of defensive playmakers that includes Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Charvarius Ward. All but one of the listed players earned a PFF grade of 80 or above, with the lone exception, Samuel, still earning a 72.4 despite playing through injuries. Samuel earned an 87.2 in 2021 and a 79.8 in 2020. It should surprise no one to see the 49ers favored, especially with how weak the rest of the NFC West could look in 2023.
NFC West Preview: The Field
Most NFL divisions have at least three teams that I wouldn't be stunned to see make the playoffs. That isn't true for the NFC West. Neither the Los Angeles Rams, who have finally started to rebuild, nor the Arizona Cardinals, who are unlikely to have quarterback Kyler Murray for the first several weeks of the season, will put up much of a fight. They certainly didn't last year -- the Cardinals ranked 28th in offensive EPA per play and 20th in defensive EPA per play, while the Rams ranked 29th and 21st in those metrics, respectively. Both teams let big-name free agents walk, including wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, edge rusher Zach Allen and linebacker Bobby Wagner. Neither team spent much to replace them.
The odds reflect the reality of the 2023 NFC West being a two-team race, and San Francisco's only meaningful competition will come from the Seattle Seahawks. Geno Smith and the Seahawks took the NFL by surprise last season to go a solid 9-8 and make the playoffs. Seattle ranked 13th in offensive EPA per play and 11th in offensive EPA per dropback last year. However, the defense struggled, and Seattle ranked a lowly 26th in defensive EPA per play. The Seahawks will need to improve on both sides of the ball if they want to challenge the 49ers, and their offseason moves could help them do so.
The Seahawks added plenty of high-impact talent to their roster in both free agency and the draft. Defensive linemen Dre'Mont Jones and Jarran Reed enter the mix, adding depth and replacing the departed Al Woods, Poona Ford and Quinton Jefferson. Safety Julian Love comes over from the New York Giants as well. The linebacking room picked up longtime star Bobby Wagner as well as former first-round pick Devin Bush, who just never really caught on in Pittsburgh. In the draft, Seattle added star cornerback Devon Witherspoon, who projects as a Day 1 starter alongside Tariq Woolen, who recorded a 71.6 PFF grade in his rookie season. The Seahawks used the rest of their picks on wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, outside linebacker Derick Hall and running back Zach Charbonnet.
NFL Predictions for the NFC West Winner
Is the San Francisco Juice Worth the Squeeze?
The San Francisco 49ers own odds no shorter than -160 (61.5%) to end up as the 2023 NFC West winners. The Seattle Seahawks come in close behind them at +195 (33.9%), leaving just over 5% of implied probability left for the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams, who both own odds no shorter than +900 (10%). Unlike some of the other divisional markets, I think the odds for the NFC West are extremely efficient. The only question left to answer is whether the juice is worth the squeeze.
Questions surrounding who the 49ers will start at quarterback are likely preventing most books from inching this line closer to -200 (66.7%). However, Bet365. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the 49ers at -175 as well, but has Seattle at +200 (33.3%) instead. There are good arguments to wagering on either team, but I'm firmly in San Francisco's corner here.
The Seahawks spent a lot of money on free agents that may not work out. Several of their big-name additions either struggled or flamed out elsewhere. It could take several weeks for this new-look unit to gel. Worse, the Seahawks are at a disadvantage in strength of schedule. The 49ers have the fifth-easiest schedule, per the win-totals-based analysis done over at FanDuel.
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NFC West Winner Prediction: San Francisco 49ers -160 for 0.8 Units at FanDuel
NFL Predictions 2023 Index
AFC West Preview & Futures Picks
