The AFC West was supposed to be competitive last year. But because Russell Wilson struggled and Justin Herbert didn’t look as impressive, the Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2023 season as sizeable favorites. Let’s dive into the 2023 AFC West preview as we make our 2023 NFL predictions, including our AFC West winner prediction, and identify the top futures picks.
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NFL Predictions 2023: AFC West Preview & Futures Picks (July 17)
AFC West Winner Odds
AFC West Preview: The Favorite
Last year's Super Bowl winners, the Kansas City Chiefs, are unsurprisingly favored to win the AFC West next year. They own odds of -160 (61.5%) or shorter across the market. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes simply commands respect, no matter what weapons he has to work with. Some worried about what Kansas City's offense would look like last year after the loss of wideout Tyreek Hill; the Chiefs gave a convincing answer. But now that wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman Jr. are gone, along with starting tackles Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie, the Chiefs have some more questions to answer.
How much worse is Mahomes' ing cast this year? Kansas City's projected starting tackles, Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor, both recorded PFF grades more than 10 points worse than the players they'll replace did last season. Kansas City's offensive line led the NFL in -block win rate by a 7% margin over the next-best Chicago Bears, greater than the gap between Chicago and 13th-ranked New England, so a slightly worse unit wouldn't kill their chances. Smith-Schuster and Hardman, while not perfect, both recorded PFF grades of or around 70, much like the players who will replace them, Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney.
If the offensive line can come close to its efficiency last year, outscoring the Chiefs will prove almost impossible. Kansas City led the NFL in offensive expected points added (EPA) over next-best Buffalo by a gap equivalent to the one between Buffalo and eighth-ranked Jacksonville. The Chiefs also led the NFL in EPA per dropback by a similarly monstrous margin. However, the defense, which lost safety Juan Thornhill and defensive lineman Frank Clark, ranked a pedestrian 15th in defensive EPA per play. The unit could become an issue if the offense takes a step back.
AFC West Preview: The Field
Part of why the Chiefs are so heavily favored is because they won't face much meaningful competition. The Los Angeles Chargers are scary but can't finish games, and what have the Denver Broncos or Las Vegas Raiders done to scare anyone? New head coach Sean Payton will have to find a way to get more out of quarterback Russell Wilson for Denver to contend. Josh McDaniels will get a chance with an ex-New England quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo, but the Raiders don't have much else on this roster aside from wide receiver Davante Adams and running back Josh Jacobs.
Kansas City's strongest challengers are the Chargers and Broncos. The Chargers struggled to move the ball downfield on offense last year, so they added a deep threat in TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston. They finished 16th in offensive EPA per play, well ahead of 27th-ranked Denver but behind 15th-ranked Las Vegas. Denver's advantage stems from solid defensive play -- despite their terrible offensive effort, the Broncos ranked ninth in defensive EPA per play, ahead of the 19th-ranked Chargers and 30th-ranked Raiders. The unit led the NFL in defensive EPA heading into the Week 8 bye, after which the team shipped off rusher Bradley Chubb.
The only question is whether the Chargers or the Broncos did enough in the offseason to knock off Mahomes. Los Angeles brought in linebacker Eric Kendricks but didn't do much else in free agency. Adding edge rusher Tuli Tuipulotu and linebacker Daiyan Henley in the draft should help. Last year's big g, cornerback J.C. Jackson, busted hard in his first season with the Chargers by recording an atrocious PFF grade of 28.7. With new defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley now manning the defense, Jackson will have a chance to bounce back -- although Ansley was an internal hire and most recently served as the team's defensive backs coach.
The Broncos made some interesting moves that could help them compete with the Chiefs. The team bolstered the offensive line by bringing in tackle Mike McGlinchey and guard Ben Powers. Defensive lineman Dre'Mont Jones is gone, but he'll be replaced by Zach Allen and Frank Clark. Allen recorded a 20-point better PFF grade than Jones last season. Clark topped Jones' grade by a 15-point margin. With star cornerback Patrick Surtain and star safety Justin Simmons both returning, Denver's defense could carry this roster to the postseason.
NFL Predictions for the AFC West Winner
Take a Risk on Sean Payton
We hear about it every year: in 18 of the last 20 seasons, one team has gone from worst in their division to winning the title one season later. Although the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets are a popular pick to accomplish the feat this year, more eyes should be on the Denver Broncos. Mahomes and the Chiefs couldn't beat the Broncos by more than a single score despite facing them after the trade deadline twice. Three overtime losses and a 4-8 record in one-score games suggest that the Broncos were unluckier than they were bad.
While the Chiefs deserve to be favored to win the AFC West, it's easy to forget about the Broncos. But the +700 (12.5%) via FanDuel, the longest price on the market by a whopping 2.9%, is an absolutely terrible line and one that's hard to up. Denver's defense showed a ton of talent last season that got completely overshadowed by the media's obsession with a regressing Russell Wilson and struggling head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Let's throw a quarter of a unit on this line and hope for some chaos -- the Broncos have a better shot of winning the AFC West in 2023 than the market would have you believe.
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AFC West Winner Prediction: Denver Broncos +700 for 0.25 Units at FanDuel
NFL Predictions 2023 Index
AFC West Preview & Futures Picks
