The biggest game of the year is finally here, and we have a +EV NFL bets!
Super Bowl Best Bets: NFL Odds, Lines & Player Props
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Jalen Hurts for Super Bowl MVP (LEAN)
I don’t know how you get a number like this on a starting quarterback in the Super Bowl. Quarterbacks win this award more than any other position, and while Saquon Barkley (+200) and Patrick Mahomes (+105) are the frontrunners, Hurts at +375 is too good to up. If the Eagles win this game, it’s hard to see it happening without Hurts being a huge factor. Maybe A.J. Brown will catch two deep bombs and steal the award, but outside of a scenario like that, Hurts is the clear play.
The Eagles have the best offensive line in the NFL, and with Barkley in the backfield, they’ve been able to create huge running lanes all season long. But if this game stays tight — which the spread indicates it will — Hurts will have to make big plays, both through the air and with his legs. I expect the narrative to lean his way if the Eagles pull this out, making this my favorite Super Bowl MVP bet.
Kareem Hunt First Touchdown (LEAN)
Hunt has quietly dominated the snap share in the Chiefs backfield since Isiah Pacheco went down, and while his anytime touchdown odds have been bet down to around +115, I love the value on him scoring first. The Chiefs have always been creative in the red zone under Andy Reid, and with Mahomes under center, they should have plenty of chances to punch one in early.
At +950, you’re getting solid value on a player who should be on the field for most early-down situations. The Eagles defensive front will key in on Mahomes and Travis Kelce, which could leave Hunt with an easy path to pay dirt. If you’re looking for a strong plus-money prop, this is the one to go after.
Jalen Hurts Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (LIKE)
The Eagles offensive line is elite, and Hurts has always been a major factor in the running game, especially in high-leverage spots. The Chiefs defense will try to contain him, but with the way they rush the er, Hurts should have plenty of opportunities to scramble and pick up chunks of yardage. Given how much is on the line, I expect Hurts to take off more than usual, making this a strong play.
Kareem Hunt Over 10.5 Rushing Attempts (LOCK)
With Pacheco not seeing nearly as much action, Hunt has taken over the bulk of the early-down work, and the Chiefs will likely try to establish the run to keep the Eagles rush honest. If Kansas City gets a lead, Hunt should see even more volume as they look to control the clock. This number feels a bit low given his expected workload, making the over a solid bet.
Fading Saquon Barkley’s Rushing Yards
The current line for Barkley’s rushing yards sits at 113.5, and if it climbs closer to 120, I’ll be looking to take the under. This isn’t an indictment of his talent — he’s been a monster all season — but rather an acknowledgment of how the game script could play out. If the Chiefs take an early lead, the Eagles may have to abandon the run earlier than they’d like, forcing Hurts to throw more. Kansas City’s defense has been elite in the second half of the season, and while Barkley will get his opportunities, this number feels just a bit too high in a game with so many variables.
