It’s one of the best Sundays of the year — NFL Conference Championship Sunday! With the NFC and AFC titles on the line, we have two epic games to dive into, and I’m here to break it all down with my Bills-Chiefs Conference Championship bet. Also, be sure to visit OddsShopper for more FREE +EV NFL bets!
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Free Conference Championship Sunday NFL Expert Pick Today
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Free NFL Expert Pick: Josh Allen Over 0.5 Touchdowns
For today’s pick, I’m stepping away from the usual sides and totals to focus on a player prop: Josh Allen to score a touchdown at any time.
Allen is a monster in the red zone. Against Baltimore, he logged 10 carries for two touchdowns. While his rushing stats weren’t flashy (20 yards), he’s methodical and lethal near the goal line. I looked at games where Allen had eight or more carries this season. Out of those games, he scored a touchdown in seven. That’s consistent red zone production we can’t ignore.
Sportsbooks are projecting around 9.5 to 10.5 carries, aligning with his touchdown trends. In the biggest games, Allen steps up, and this is as big as it gets. In high-stakes matchups, Allen takes matters into his own hands. Whether it’s a quarterback sneak, a designed run or a scramble, the opportunities will be there. We’ve seen him score from close range and even from longer distances, like the 26-yard touchdown against the Chiefs earlier this season.
I shopped this bet across sportsbooks and found the best value at DraftKings with -115 odds. It’s a straightforward angle — Allen’s volume on the ground, red zone opportunities and ability to finish drives make this a strong play.
Best Bills-Chiefs Bet: Josh Allen Over 0.5 Touchdowns (-115, DraftKings)
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