The Detroit Lions haven’t won the NFC North crown since realignment, yet they are the betting favorites to lead this division in 2023. After an offseason full of big names on the move, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who knows what will happen here this season? Let’s dive into the 2023 NFC North preview as we make our 2023 NFL predictions, including our NFC North winner prediction, and identify the top futures picks.
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NFL Predictions 2023: NFC North Preview & Futures Picks (July 19)
NFC North Winner Odds
NFC North Preview: The Favorite
Although the Minnesota Vikings lifted the NFC North crown last season, the books don't expect them to do so again. Instead, the Detroit Lions, led by fan-favorite head coach Dan Campbell, are the betting favorites to take the division. Campbell's Lions ranked a ferocious sixth in offensive expected points added (EPA) per play last season behind solid play from quarterback Jared Goff. The ing attack remains almost entirely intact, losing only wide receiver D.J. Chark Jr. but adding Marvin Jones Jr. in his place. The team also replaced tight end T.J. Hockenson with second-round draft selection Sam LaPorta. The offensive line returns all five starters, including star tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell, both of whom recorded PFF grades of 74 or better.
The biggest changes for Detroit come at running back and on the defensive side. Gone are Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift, but David Montgomery and first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs offer comparable skillsets. The team's leader in tackles, linebacker Alex Anzalone, and its leader in sacks, edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, are both back. They'll get help from first-round linebacker Jack Campbell, who likely replaces Chris Board at Will. The Lions also completely rebuilt their secondary. Gone are safety DeShon Elliott, the team's second-leading tackler, and cornerback Jeff Okudah. Replacing them are cornerbacks Cameron Sutton, who recorded a PFF grade of 71.6 last year, cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, who recorded a 70.9, safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who recorded a 63.9, and second-round safety Brian Branch.
The Lions will need their new defensive personnel to make a splash early to win the NFC North. Detroit's defense ranked an abysmal 31st in defensive EPA per play, ahead of only the Chicago Bears. The unit ranked 30th against dropbacks and 27th against the run. The upgrades to the secondary will help, but Detroit must improve its rush. The Lions ranked a solid ninth in pressure percentage (23.2%) but had to blitz at the seventh-highest rate (31.2%) to do so. None of the top-five teams by pressure percentage blitzed more than 26% of the time. Detroit ranked a dismal 25th in -rush win rate and didn't add anyone to the defensive trenches aside from third-round defensive lineman Brodric Martin, who is more of a project than a Day 1 contributor.
NFC North Preview: The Field
Although the Detroit Lions are certainly trending up, let's not forget that they haven't ever won an NFC North title. They last won their division in 1993, back when the NFC North was still called the NFC Central and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were in the division. They lost to the Brett Favre-led Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card round that year. But now that both Favre and Aaron Rodgers are gone from this division for the first time since 1992, who knows what will happen in this year's NFC North? The Packers will turn to an unproven Jordan Love to replace Rodgers, while the Chicago Bears will return electric runner Justin Fields and the Vikings bring back the experienced and serviceable Kirk Cousins.
So which of these teams can challenge Detroit? All three fared poorly in EPA metrics last year. The Vikings ranked 18th in offensive EPA and 16th in defensive EPA. The Packers ranked 11th offensively but 27th defensively. The Bears ranked 23rd and 32nd, respectively, on their way to the first overall pick, which they turned into wide receiver D.J. Moore, rookie offensive tackle Darnell Wright and several future draft selections. Chicago's offseason moves, including the g of 24-year-old linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and 26-year-old guard Nate Davis, suggest that the Bears' front office sees the team's best days as coming in a season or two, not in 2023.
Likewise, the Packers' offseason lacks the tenor of a short-term contender. Green Bay shipped off Rodgers and a first-round pick for picks that became edge rusher Luke Van Ness, tight end Luke Musgrave and kicker Anders Carlson, along with a conditional 2024 draft selection. The Packers also failed to make a splash in free agency, allowing wide receiver Allen Lazard, defensive end Jarran Reed, defensive end Dean Lowry and safety Adrian Amos to leave without any big names taking their places. Green Bay lost three of its top-six leaders in total receptions, three of its top-six leaders in quarterback hits and its second-leading tackler. Don't be surprised if the Packers end up selling a few aging veterans or expiring contracts at the trade deadline.
This leaves us with the Minnesota Vikings. Despite winning the division title last year, the Vikings now have worse odds of winning the NFC North than they did last year. I bought them at +280 (26.3%) last year; they're now trading at +300 (25%) or so this year. I'm skeptical of teams that struggle in EPA metrics, and Minnesota's offseason puts the team in a tough spot. On the one hand, they'll swap out aging wide receiver Adam Thielen for first-round rookie Jordan Addison, who will overwhelm some secondaries alongside Justin Jefferson. On the other hand, failing to bolster an offensive line that ranked 22nd in -block win rate could prove problematic, especially since the team continues to lack depth behind its solid cast of starters. Minnesota also lost its leader in quarterback hits, Za'Darius Smith, its leading tackler, linebacker Eric Kendricks, and run-stuffer Dalvin Tomlinson. Oh, and did I mention that running back Dalvin Cook is gone?
NFL Predictions for the NFC North Winner
How Can Detroit Fumble This Bag?
The NFC North title is Detroit's to lose. The Lions will face a worse version of last year's Packers and Vikings, against whom they already went 3-1. The Chicago Bears are better than before, but they are probably a year away from taking the division crown. Their starting cornerbacks are likely to be Jaylon Johnson, who recorded a PFF grade in the mid-60s last year, and second-round pick Tyrique Stevenson -- that does not a contending secondary make, especially since Chicago's rush ranked 31st in pressure percentage (15.9%) and 23rd in -rush win rate. The bolstered offensive line may help, but quarterback Justin Fields will have to get rid of the ball faster.
The Lions have a light schedule this year, as they rank 11th in strength of schedule by the win-totals-based analysis done over at Sharp Football Analysis. That puts them ahead of the 14th-ranked Packers and 25th-ranked Vikings but behind the sixth-ranked Bears. Minnesota must visit both Philadelphia and Cincinnati next year, opponents Detroit won't have to worry about until the postseason. Instead, Detroit visits Baltimore and Dallas. Getting Detroit at odds north of +150 (40%) would be nice, but the +145 (40.8%) at FanDuel Sportsbook is a good enough price to warrant wagering enough to profit a unit.
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NFC North Winner Prediction: Detroit Lions +145 for 0.7 Units at FanDuel
NFL Predictions 2023 Index
AFC West Preview & Futures Picks
