The Cincinnati Reds will host the San Francisco Giants early on Thursday afternoon. You can tune in live on ESPN+ at 12:30 p.m. ET. With a pair of talented but overperforming starting pitchers on the mound, the books might be underestimating the offensive potential in this game. Let’s dig into today’s Giants-Reds odds as we make our predictions and pick the best MLB bet!
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Best MLB Giants-Reds Betting Pick & Prediction: Total Has Value Today
Giants-Reds Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Giants: -130 | Reds: +105
Giants -1.5: +120 | Reds +1.5: -150
Over 10: +100 | Under 10: -122
The San Francisco Giants are slight road favorites for their early afternoon game against the Cincinnati Reds. The Giants will start RHP Alex Cobb, whose 2.82 ERA doesn’t look sustainable when compared to his 4.14 xERA. Likewise, the Reds will start LHP Andrew Abbott, whose 2.46 ERA is similarly unsustainable when compared to his 3.62 xERA. However, both pitchers came out of the All-Star Break in good form: Cobb allowed four hits and one earned run across six innings in his most recent appearance, while Abbott gave up just three hits and two earned runs over six innings of action in his.
Although things looked evenly matched on the mound, the offensive metrics favor the Giants. San Francisco ranks 11th in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .325. That puts them well ahead of 22nd-ranked Cincinnati at .313. Although rookie sensation Elly De La Cruz made plenty of headlines once called up, his .337 wOBA far outweighs his rather pedestrian .287 xwOBA. Both offenses fare slightly better against opposite-handed pitchers than the ones they’ll play on Thursday. San Francisco’s team OPS dips from .727 to .700 against LHPs like Abbott. Likewise, Cincinnati’s team OPS drops from .745 to .740 against RHPs like Cobb.
Let’s not forget that we’re in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark for this one. Cincinnati’s home stadium ranks third in park factors over the last three seasons for total offense. Games played here have gone 110-97-3 to the over since 2021. This year, that record sits at 26-23. Helping the over’s case is that this year’s Reds are 28-19 to the over when playing on the road, which suggests the market often underrates their offense. They are also 21-12 to the over as a home underdog. The Giants are 49-43-3 to the under this year, but they are a breakeven 22-22-1 to the over on the road.
A few other trends solidify the over as a solid bet. The Reds have received plenty of double-digit totals this season, and they are 21-12 to the over in those games. Likewise, the Giants are 5-4 to the over when playing with a double-digit total. Although it’s to be determined where the market will settle on the total for this game, you’ll find the over 10 priced at +100 (50%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s play that number and hope both pitchers undergo some long-overdue regression.
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Best Giants-Reds MLB Pick: Over 10 +100 at DraftKings
