The Philadelphia Eagles were a popular underdog pick to win the NFC East last year, and plenty of sharps — including myself — got action on them at odds of +175 (36.4%). The Eagles are now favored to repeat as NFC East champions. However, if what’s past is prologue, the odds are stacked against them: no team has repeated as NFC East winners since the Eagles did it in 2004. Let’s dive into the 2023 NFC East preview as we make our 2023 NFL predictions, including our NFC East winner prediction, and identify the top futures picks.
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NFL Predictions 2023: NFC East Preview & Futures Picks (July 18)
NFC East Winner Odds
NFC East Preview: The Favorite
Can the Philadelphia Eagles repeat as NFC East winners? They looked absolutely unstoppable at points last season, tearing out to an 8-0 start before finishing the regular season at 14-3. Philadelphia's offense ranked third in offensive expected points added (EPA) per play last year, trailing only the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. They led the NFL in EPA per rushing play by more than twice what the next-best Baltimore Ravens recorded. It's hard to generate EPA on the ground -- only five teams were above zero in the metric last year -- but that didn't stop the Eagles from averaging more EPA per rush than what all but six teams averaged in EPA per dropback. The Eagles may have lost running back Miles Sanders, but they'll replace him with Rashaad Penny and D'Andre Swift, two hyper-efficient but injury-prone weapons.
Philadelphia's offense was exceptional, but it didn't get to the Super Bowl without plenty of help from the defense. The Eagles ranked fourth in defensive EPA per play and led the NFL in EPA per dropback allowed. The defense proved so dominant largely due to a rush that ranked second in pressure percentage (25.5%). Although the Eagles lost interior defensive lineman Javon Hargrave, who recorded a 78.2 PFF grade, they added Jalen Carter to replace him. Stud defensive linemen Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham also return but are more known for their rushing. Losing safeties Marcus Epps and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson could hurt, but Reed Blankenship looked sneaky great last year, and he'll get help from Terrell Edmunds and an elite cast of cornerbacks that includes Darius Slay, James Bradberry and rookie Kelee Ringo.
If the Eagles have weaknesses, it's in their offensive line depth and ability to stop the run. Philadelphia lost guard Isaac Seumalo, who recorded a 75.2 PFF grade, to free agency, along with backup tackle Andre Dillard, who recorded a 67.9. Interior lineman Cam Jurgens, who recorded a 60.1 PFF grade last year, is projected to take over for Seumalo. The Eagles still have elite tackles in Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson but lack depth behind them. Against the run, the Eagles ranked 23rd in defensive EPA per rush. Losing Hargrave, who recorded a 48.2 PFF grade against the run, may actually help -- but the Eagles will need Carter and last year's first-round pick, defensive tackle Jordan Davis, to step up.
NFC East Preview: The Field
The NFC East caught a number of analysts off guard by sending three teams to the postseason last year. The Dallas Cowboys weren't a shock, but the Brian Daboll-led New York Giants seemingly came out of nowhere to lock up a Wild Card spot. The Giants may not prove quite so plucky this year, especially if running back Saquon Barkley sits out a few games. The Washington Commanders could prove challenging because of their elite front seven -- they did hand the Eagles a loss last year, after all, but have serious questions at quarterback. The betting odds point to a two-team race between the Eagles and Cowboys, a conclusion with which I ultimately agree.
But before I dismiss the Giants and Commanders completely, let's give them some credit for productive offseasons. The Giants didn't overpay a running back while adding college football's best center, John Michael Schmitz, and a respectable guard, Ben Bredeson, to an offensive line that frequently struggled to stud left tackle Andrew Thomas. Bringing in defensive lineman A'Shawn Robinson from the Rams will help them stuff the run, as will adding flexible linebacker Bobby Okereke. The Commanders bolstered their offensive line by bringing in tackle Andrew Wylie, but poaching guard Nick Gates from the Giants for $16.5 million probably wasn't smart. They return most key cogs to a defense that already ranked fifth in defensive EPA despite missing edge rusher Chase Young for most of the season.
The Dallas Cowboys finished a close second to the Eagles last season, trailing them by a two-game margin, and split the season series. However, quarterback Jalen Hurts missed the trip to Dallas, and the Cowboys only took the lead with a few minutes left in the fourth quarter. Dallas ranked 10th in offensive EPA last year, trailing even the New York Giants, but ranked second in defensive EPA. Head coach Mike McCarthy remains at the helm, but he'll replace offensive coordinator Kellen Moore with Brian Schottenheimer, who served in the same role for the Seattle Seahawks from 2018-20. Schottenheimer's Seahawks ranked 18th in offensive EPA per play those years.
Aside from a handful of big-name departures on offense, the Cowboys remain mostly intact. Running back Ezekiel Elliott, tight end Dalton Schultz and guard Connon McGovern are all gone. None of those players produced far enough above replacement level for their departures to mean much immediately -- but depth could become a problem down the stretch. While the rush remains a strength, and the run defense should improve with first-round defensive tackle Mazi Smith on the roster, I find it hard to trust a secondary reliant upon a mediocre coverage cornerback in Trevon Diggs, a-soon-to-be 33-year-old Stephon Gilmore and Jourdan Lewis.
NFL Predictions for the NFC East Winner
It Was Always the Eagles
My confidence in taking the Eagles at near-coinflip odds of -110 (52.4%) via FanDuel comes down to three factors. First, general manager Howie Roseman has done an irable job of building this roster. He also showed some aggression at last year's trade deadline by landing rusher Robert Quinn on an expiring contract, so don't be surprised if he pays up for some more talent at midseason again. The Eagles have depth at just about every position, including quarterback, as they just brought in Marcus Mariota.
Second, the Eagles have the easiest strength of schedule in the division, per the win-totals-based analysis done over at Sharp Football Analysis. They rank that highly despite winning the NFC East last year because their victory hands them games against the rebuilding Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the overrated Minnesota Vikings. They have a road trip to Kansas City on the schedule, but the Cowboys will also have to travel for their lone AFC West opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers.
Third and finally, the Cowboys could genuinely look a lot worse this season on offense. Moore ran Dallas' offense from 2019 to 2022, and the team ranked a steady eighth in EPA per play through that four-year stretch. , that dataset includes the 11 games quarterback Dak Prescott missed in 2020 and the five he missed in 2022, stretches that saw the Cowboys start the likes of Ben DiNucci, Garrett Gilbert, Andy Dalton and Cooper Rush. The Cowboys replaced him by g Brian Schottenheimer, who got run out of Seattle a few years ago for an inability to make adjustments, and will trust Mike McCarthy to call the plays. Those changes don't bode well for Dallas' chances in the 2023 NFC East.
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NFC East Winner Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles -110 for 1.1 Units at FanDuel
NFL Predictions 2023 Index
AFC West Preview & Futures Picks
