We’ve turned the calendar to July, which means the 2023 NFL season has almost arrived. Of course, we still have to get through training camp and the preseason, but I’d rather look at a half-full glass than an empty one. Let’s dive into the 2023 AFC East preview as we make our 2023 NFL predictions, including our AFC East winner prediction, and identify the top futures picks.
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NFL Predictions 2023: AFC East Preview & Futures Picks (July 13)
AFC East Winner Odds
AFC East Preview: The Favorite
Last year's AFC East winners, the Buffalo Bills, took the division for the third-straight season in 2022. Although the New England Patriots once ran this division, racking up 16 titles in 18 years from 2001 to 2019, the Bills are the best-positioned team to run up a similar streak because of star quarterback Josh Allen. The only question is whether Allen can stay healthy.
Buffalo's offense should remain a juggernaut. The Bills ranked second in offensive expected points added (EPA) per play across the entire NFL last season. Over the last three years, Allen ranks second among eligible quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play and sixth in completion percentage over expected (OE). The Bills kept the unit mostly intact, losing running back Devin Singletary but adding tight end Dalton Kincaid and guards Conner McGovern and O'Cyrus Torrence.
But Buffalo's defense has been just as integral to the team's rise as the offense, and the unit took a step back last season. The Bills ranked only seventh in defensive EPA per play, falling to 11th against dropbacks. The team must now replace inside linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, its leading tackler. The leading candidate is probably veteran A.J. Klein, but his dismal PFF grade of 47.7 doesn't inspire much confidence. With age increasingly likely to affect star safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, the Bills may become increasingly reliant on their offense.
AFC East Preview: The Field
The Bills will face challenges from the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets and the Tua Tagovailoa-led Miami Dolphins. The Mac Jones-led New England Patriots are there, too, but aren't trending in the right direction. The Dolphins ranked fifth in offensive EPA per play last season while Tagovailoa ranked second in adjusted EPA per play. The Jets ranked a dismal 30th in offensive EPA per play and now turn to Rodgers, who ranked 21st in adjusted EPA per play last year, to turn things around. The Patriots ranked 24th in offensive EPA per play with Jones ranking 27th.
The Dolphins couldn't do much on defense last year, which held them back -- Miami ranked an atrocious 26th in defensive EPA per play. The Dolphins improved to 19th in the metric after acquiring edge rusher Bradley Chubb before Week 9. Head coach Mike McDaniel has since brought in defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, and the team has added cornerback Jalen Ramsey and linebacker David Long, both of whom recorded PFF grades above 75 last year.
In contrast, the Jets did plenty on defense but couldn't get enough out of quarterbacks Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson and Mike White. Their struggles were due in no small part to poor offensive line play, as the unit ranked 21st in -block win rate and 32nd in adjusted sack rate, which they haven't addressed. They'll trust oft-injured Mekhi Becton and Duane Brown at tackle after losing out on a chance to draft Broderick Jones.
However, New York's defense should remain a strength. The Jets ranked an impressive sixth in both defensive EPA per play and defensive EPA per play against dropbacks. Cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, both of whom recorded PFF grades above 85, return. However, defensive linemen Sheldon Rankins and Nathan Shepherd are both gone, replaced by mediocre veterans Quinton Jefferson and Al Woods.
NFL Predictions for the AFC East Winner
It's Probably Just the Bills Again
Although the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets made aggressive moves in the offseason to bolster their rosters, those changes aren't enough to fix both teams' deeper flaws. The Dolphins remain reliant upon an undersized quarterback who just suffered three concussions in a single season. The Jets will trust an aging veteran quarterback's quick decision-making to compensate for poor blocking.
The Bills aren't currently built for a dynastic run that would rival New England's AFC East dominance, but they are rightfully favored to repeat as divisional champions this season. The media circus surrounding Aaron Rodgers and the Jets has rendered the AFC East betting markets more competitive than they should be -- what good is Rodgers without an offensive line to protect him? Likewise, what good are Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle without a healthy signal-caller?
Buffalo may rank a dismal 29th in strength of schedule, per the win-total-based calculations done at Sharp Football Analysis, but nobody in the AFC East ranks much better. New York slots in at 26th, Miami ranks 30th and New England ranks 32nd. While the Bills will have road trips to Philadelphia, Kansas City and Cincinnati next year, they could lose all three of those games and still win the AFC East. Let's lock them in at odds of +130 (43.5%) via BetMGM.
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AFC East Winner Prediction: Buffalo Bills +130 for 1 Unit at BetMGM
NFL Predictions 2023 Index
AFC West Preview & Futures Picks
