The conference tournament slate is heating up on Wednesday, and there are several big-time matchups to break down. I’ll provide picks and predictions for some of the biggest games in this article. Nonetheless, let’s continue our bold college basketball picks series by not only making our Washington-USC pick, but toss a few predictions out for other games as well.
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Bold College Basketball Picks
Conference championship week is one of the best of the entire calendar year for sports betting. There are hundreds of games this week, all with postseason stakes, which means plenty of investment opportunities. I’m providing three write-ups for Wednesday’s games in this article. Lines will always move overnight, so I’m providing the number I’d play each game up to. Be sure to have multiple sportsbooks available so you can shop for the best available line. Let’s find some winners.
Pac-12: No. 8 Washington vs. No. 9 USC
In the preseason, USC was picked to finish second in the Pac-12. However, the Trojans have been a massive disappointment, finishing 14-17 overall and 8-12 in conference play. The Trojans are finally healthy after dealing with injuries all year, and they’ve been surging as a result. USC is 5-2 in its last seven games, with both losses coming by just three points.
In that recent seven-game span, USC ranks 18th in adjusted efficiency and second in the Pac-12 behind only Arizona, according to Bart Torvik. They also seem to have resolved their turnover issues somewhat – they rank 212nd in turnover rate on the season, but that has improved to 92nd over the recent stretch.
Isaiah Collier is healthy after missing time earlier this season, and the dynamic freshman guard can take over games against anyone. He scored 31 points in USC’s recent road win over Washington, and he can expose a Huskies rim defense that grades out below average per Synergy. Senior Boogie Ellis has also played in tons of big games and can be leaned on here.
USC’s biggest weakness remains its defensive rebounding, where they rank 319th this season. They’re also 260th in potential points allowed off second chances per Haslametrics. However, Washington ranks just 181st in potential second-chance points on offense and 242nd in offensive rebound rate, so they won’t challenge USC in that regard.
Washington has announced that head coach Mike Hopkins won’t return next season, although he’s finishing the season and will coach in the tournament. The Huskies earned a road upset over Washington State to close out the regular season, but I still have questions about their mindset heading to Las Vegas. Meanwhile, USC has been in superb form and is playing like the team many expected them to be this season. Bet the Trojans here.
Best Washington-USC Pick: USC -2 (play to -3.5)
Big 12: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Kansas State
It’s been an up-and-down season for Texas, particularly with injuries to multiple key players, but the Longhorns are now fully healthy and in an excellent position for success in the postseason. In this first-round matchup, they face a Kansas State team they defeated earlier this season in a wire-to-wire victory where they led by as many as 12 points despite shooting just 3-19 (15.8%) from 3-point range.
I expect Texas to be much more efficient from deep this second time around. Since the beginning of January, Kansas State has allowed opponents to shoot just 30% from 3, which ranks 18th in the country. However, they’re outside the top 300 in open 3 rate allowed per ShotQuality, and they’re overdue for regression in that regard.
Texas can also take advantage of the Wildcats in transition. Kansas State has suffered from ungodly turnover woes all season, ranking 350th in turnover rate. Texas couldn’t take advantage in the first matchup, finishing with just six fast break points, but I’d be stunned not to see that number increase as the Longhorns have the most efficient transition offense in the country, per Synergy.
Texas can force Kansas State’s offense into a ton of issues with a top-20 defense when they go to the press per Synergy, while the Wildcats rank 354th against the press. The Longhorns are also elite defending on the interior, ranking in the 90th percentile protecting the rim per Synergy and 4th in the country in second-chance conversion rate allowed per Haslametrics. With Dylan Disu now healthy, the Longhorns are dominant inside the paint.
Jerome Tang did an excellent job with Kansas State in March last year, but this is a much less talented version of the same team. The Wildcats have benefitted from some real luck this year, including an absurd 12-0 overtime record dating back to last season. I see Texas as a much more talented team, as they’re 23rd in overall adjusted efficiency, while Kansas State is 68th.
I bought Texas at 30-1 to win this tournament, and I’m fully confident in their ability to advance here. I see this as a double-digit win for the Longhorns. Hook ‘em!
Best Texas-Kansas State Pick: Texas -4.5 (play to -6)
Big 12: No. 6 Kansas vs. No. 11 Cincinnati
After losing the most conference games in the Bill Self era, Kansas is limping into the Big 12 Tournament, losers of three of their last four games. This may have been an opportunity to hit the reset button, but the Jayhawks announced that their top two leading scorers, Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson, will be out for the Big 12 Tournament.
With Dickinson out of the lineup, the Jayhawks will turn to 6’7” forward K.J. Adams as their de facto starting center. Parker Braun is the lone remaining true center on the roster, and he’s coming back from an ankle injury, so Kansas will have to play small in this game. That presents problems against a Cincinnati team that lives on the glass with a lineup that ranks 12th in effective height per KenPom.
Cincinnati outrebounded Kansas 40-29 in their prior meeting this season, and that was with Dickinson in the lineup and at Allen Fieldhouse. The Bearcats rank 15th in offensive rebound rate this season. They should get plenty of second-chance opportunities throughout this game as 7’0” Aziz Bandaogo and 6’11” Viktor Lakhin take advantage of an undersized Kansas lineup.
The Bearcats suffered from brutal late-game variance throughout the season, finishing 4-8 in conference games decided by 5 or fewer points. One of those losses was against Kansas, a 5-point loss on the road. Kansas shot 42.9% from 3 in that game to 16.7% for Cincinnati, and the Jayhawks still barely escaped with the win.
Ultimately, I’m betting on Cincinnati as the healthier, more motivated team. The Bearcats need a massive push in this tournament to have any shot of making the NCAA Tournament, and it starts with a win over Kansas here.
Best Kansas-Cincinnati Pick: Cincinnati -1 (play to -2.5)
