The NBA rolls on with an injury-packed Tuesday slate. The best way to compensate for so much uncertainty is to find spots where we know the most for certain, and that’s exactly what our experts have done. Let’s dive into our top NBA picks today as we break down four expert bets for Tuesday, including a Tobias Harris prediction. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA player prop betting.
NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets for Tuesday, March 12
NBA Expert Pick #1: Best Tyrese Haliburton Bet
Haliburton’s scoring has appeared to be down since the injury he suffered in January, but he’s fully healthy now, and has been playing full minutes — he’s just been shooting poorly, especially from 3-point range.
How poorly from 3, exactly, you ask? Over his last five games, he is 6-for-35, which is good for… a balmy 17.1%.
For a dude who is a career 39.8% shooter from 3? Yeah, something has to give here.
Indy is going to need points from somewhere, and it’s reasonable to believe Haliburton will take on some of, if not a majority of that scoring role to keep pace with the Thunder tonight.
After all, he does average 20.8 points per game. So, we’re not asking for too much here.
NBA Pick: Tyrese Haliburton o19.5 PTS -112 at BetRivers
Bet Until: o23.5 PTS
— here!
NBA Expert Pick #2: Best Tobias Harris Bet
Tobias Harris has some fascinating shooting splits this year. In 377 minutes without Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid on the floor, Harris sports a 24.1% usage rate but just a paltry 48.2% eFG.
His 724 minutes with Maxey on and Embiid off, though? A comparable 23.5% usage rate but a much-improved 53.6% eFG.
It would appear Harris thrives a lot more as a complementary piece in Philly’s offense, and getting Maxey back today plus a slight downtick in minutes for Buddy Hield bodes well for Harris tonight.
NBA Pick: Tobias Harris o16.5 PTS -110 at DraftKings
Bet Until: o16.5 -110
NBA Expert Pick #3: Best Malik Beasley Bet
OddsShopper’s NBA betting tools recommend getting action on this Malik Beasley under before it disappears: bet365 is offering a bet for -115 when the rest of the market is trading at -120 or lower — and the sharp books have it at -149.
Using a market-based betting approach can feel weird, but it’s profitable. Between the start of the season and the All-Star Break, the model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip and 5% on those wagered two hours before tip.
Bet365 was one of the model’s best sportsbooks, as it secured an impressive 6.8% ROI on bets placed at bet365 two hours before tip. Curious about what other books it beat? I recommend reading the full story on that here.
NBA Pick: Malik Beasley u12.5 PTS -115 at bet365
Bet Until: u12.5 PTS -130
NBA Expert Pick #4: Best Fred VanVleet Bet
It’s time to play an over. Fred VanVleet will captain a Houston Rockets offense that just lost Alperen Sengün for the foreseeable future, which will likely thrust VanVleet into an even bigger facilitation role.
VanVleet was already averaging eight assists per game this season, so we’re lucky that the books opened the bidding on this prop at 7.5 due to his shaky showings in the assist column since the All-Star Break.
VanVleet draws a matchup with the fast-paced San Antonio Spurs, and this spot usually bodes great for point guards. They have coughed up the sixth-most assists per game to the position on the year (9.2).
VanVleet himself is averaging nine assists per game against them this season, clearing the 7.5 twice and the 9.5 once. VanVleet played each of those games alongside Sengün (he hasn’t played a game without the budding star this year), too.
I bought VanVleet to clear the 7.5 at -145 on Hard Rock (it’s at -150 at DraftKings and most other spots). I also bought him to clear the 9.5 at FanDuel for +180. The Spurs have gotten better at limiting assists lately, but their breakneck pace and VanVleet’s likely increase in volume make the over a great deal at this price point.
NBA Pick: Fred VanVleet Over 7.5 Assists -145 at Hard Rock
Bet Until: o8.5 AST +100
— here!
NBA Expert Pick #5: Best Jalen Green Bet
Jalen Green’s 27 percent usage rate balloons to 36 percent with Alperen Sengün off the floor this season. No other player on the Rockets sees their usage rise north of 22 percent in this scenario.
The Rockets will play the Spurs tonight, and San Antonio plays at the league’s third-fastest pace and is playing in the second leg of a back-to-back on Tuesday. Green should stay busy while logging 35-plus minutes of work.
