The New England Patriots will head into the Meadowlands to face the New York Jets. Bill Belichick’s Patriots have won their last 14 games against the Jets. The Jets haven’t beaten the Patriots in regulation in a regular-season game since 2006. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Patriots-Jets betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 3 bet!
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Patriots-Jets Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 3
Patriots-Jets Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Patriots: -146 | Jets:+124
Patriots -2.5: -115 | Jets +2.5: -105
Over 36.5: -105 | Under 36.5: -115
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Patriots-Jets Pick & Prediction
We don’t need any more tape to know that Zach Wilson is not a good NFL quarterback. The New York Jets are a 2.5-point home underdog to the New England Patriots this weekend, and it’s always a good idea to fade the Jets when Bill Belichick is on the opposite sideline. Although New England is off to a disappointing 0-2 start, the Patriots have shown a lot more life on offense with Bill O’Brien at the helm this year — just not along the offensive line. The Patriots rank an atrocious 31st in -block win rate (37%) and 27th in run-block win rate (67%). I’m backing the Pats to win this game at any number better than -150 (60%).
The Patriots swept the season series against the Jets last year. They held off a late-game comeback in the Meadowlands and scored an overtime win over a punt return by Marcus Jones in Foxborough. The wins weren’t as dominant as they were in the Tom Brady era, but they were still wins. Terrible offensive line play by New York ensured that Wilson made plenty of mistakes, and the situation is no better this year — New York is the only team to trail New England in block win rate at 32nd (33%). Both teams’ conservative offenses and bad offensive lines have led Vegas to set the total for this one at a laughable 36.5.
Despite the 0-2 start, New England has looked better on both sides of the ball than New York. The Patriots rank a bad 24th in offensive expected points added (EPA), but they’re at least eighth in success rate (47%). New York is 30th in EPA and 24th in success rate (39.4%). These teams are neck-and-neck defensively, with New England ranked 21st in EPA allowed per play, slightly behind 20th-ranked New York, but New England is 19th in success rate allowed (44.4%) while New York is 22nd (45.3%). However, the Patriots have pressured opposing quarterbacks 22.9% of the time, far better than the Jets, who have done so only 16.7% of the time.
Mac Jones and his receivers have a slightly easier job ahead of them than Zach Wilson and his. The Patriots have done a better job getting to opposing quarterbacks than the Jets, and that pressure will have serious consequences for a turnover-prone quarterback like Wilson. Since 2022, Jones ranks 31st among 38 quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play. Wilson ranks 38th. Jones also ranks 22nd in completion percentage over expected (OE) at -0.1% while Wilson ranks a dreadful 38th at -6%. As long as the Jets intend to trot out Wilson, the Patriots have a better than 60% chance of winning.
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The odds for Week 3’s Patriots-Jets game haven’t moved much since they opened. Pregame reports that 70% of the cash and 65% of the tickets have come in on New England. Those aren’t super meaningful splits, which is likely why the number is close to where it opened. Both teams have plenty of names on the injury report, but the news is worse for New York than New England. The Jets won’t have tackle Duane Brown or guard Wes Schweitzer, which will render them that much more vulnerable to the Patriots’ defense.
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Patriots-Jets NFL Week 3 Pick: New England -146 at FanDuel
