The Miami Dolphins and their high-flying offense will host the Denver Broncos on Sunday, but they may not have star receiver Jaylen Waddle, who is questionable with a concussion. The game isn’t expected to be a close one, with the Broncos listed as 6.5-point dogs, but it should be high-scoring. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Broncos-Dolphins betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 3 bet!
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Broncos-Dolphins Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 3
Broncos-Dolphins Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Broncos: +220 | Dolphins: -270
Broncos +6.5: -110 | Dolphins -6.5: -110
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
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Broncos-Dolphins Pick & Prediction
The Miami Dolphins will host the Denver Broncos on Sunday, and boy, well, I expect a lot of points from Miami in this one. Their offense is performing at an unsustainably high level, but the time for the wheels to come off isn’t against a struggling Broncos defense. Denver coughed up 17 points to a Raiders team that looked awful in Week 2 and 35 points to a Commanders team that looked awful in Week 1. The Broncos are at about the league average in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush attempt but are fourth worst by EPA allowed per attempt, and they’ll have to face the league leaders in EPA per attempt this weekend.
The Broncos have taken a major step back defensively this season. Star cornerback Pat Surtain II and star safety Justin Simmons are still in town, and while Surtain is as good as ever, Simmons owns a 47.6 PFF grade through two games, coughing up an 80% completion percentage and a 118.7 QBR. Surtain’s fellow boundary cornerback, Damarri Mathis, has surrendered a 100% completion percentage on nine targets and a 149.3 QBR. Mix that with a defensive front that ranks a dismal 27th in -rush win rate (32%) and you’ve got a recipe for disaster. The Broncos have some good defensive pieces, but they won’t be enough to stop Miami.
Again, the Dolphins are performing unsustainably well on offense, but let’s break down just how well they’re doing. Miami leads the NFL in EPA per play by nearly 0.1 more than the next-best Green Bay Packers, which is a wider gap than the one the Packers have over the 11th-ranked Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Miami’s offensive success rate of 52.4% trails only the Buffalo Bills and would’ve led the NFL last year by 1.7%. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa ranks second to only Patrick Mahomes in Ben Baldwin’s EPA+OE composite score over the last two seasons, and he currently leads all quarterbacks in the metric this season.
Sunday’s Broncos-Dolphins game raises the question of what happens when an unstoppable force meets a movable object. Denver’s defense was supposed to benefit from a slow-paced, run-heavy offense, but the Broncos are only the 12th-slowest team in seconds per play (29.2) this year, and whatever run-heavy scheme Payton was supposed to employ hasn’t materialized — Denver is 25th in rushing play percentage (37.5%). That’s left their undermanned defense vulnerable, and a bad pair of opposing offenses have capitalized for the eighth-most yards per play (5.4) and the 17th-most yards per game (324.5).
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I recommended buying the over for Miami’s team total, which is set to 27.5, in the OddsShopper’s tools, you’ll find that the best price is currently the -105 (51.2%) Caesars Sportsbook. Lock that one in before it ticks down.
UPDATE (9/23/2023 at 4:15 p.m. ET): Jaylen Waddle has been ruled out of Sunday’s Broncos-Dolphins game, per NFL Insider Adam Schefter.
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Broncos-Dolphins NFL Week 3 Pick: Miami Over 27.5 -105 at Caesars
