It’s Christmas Eve Eve, and I hope everything’s going well for you wherever you are. We have a jam-packed slate today: Monday Night Football, bowl games, NBA, soccer, you name it. But I’m here to focus on one spot that stands out — my favorite bet from the Saints-Packers matchup. Before diving into my free NFL pick for tonight’s Saints-Packers Monday Night Football matchup, head over to OddsShopper for our FREE +EV NFL bets!
Free Monday Night Football NFL Expert Pick Today: Saints-Packers
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Free NFL Expert Pick: Packers First Half -9.5
Now I’ll be honest — betting first half spreads in the NFL isn’t something I do often. I can probably count on one hand the number of times I’ve done it all season. But in this case, it’s the move with which I’m rolling.
Could you lay the full game spread of -13.5 instead? Sure, but there’s always the chance of a backdoor cover in the late stages of the game, especially with the Packers having big games ahead. By isolating the first half, I’m banking on Green Bay to come out fast, control the game early and build a commanding lead before halftime.
Green Bay is the better team here, and it’s hitting their stride at the right time. It is at home, fighting for playoff positioning and facing a Saints team that’s a complete mess right now.
The Saints offense is banged up across the board: Alvin Kamara is hurt, Derek Carr is hurt, Chris Olave is hurt and Rashid Shaheed is hurt. With all those injuries, it’s hard to see the Saints generating much offense. Spencer Rattler, who’s stepped in, has been respectable, but this is a tough spot for him on the road, outdoors, against a Green Bay defense that’s playing well.
Meanwhile, the Packers are clicking. Jordan Love doesn’t need to do much — just avoid turnovers and let Josh Jacobs carry the load on the ground. The defense is pressuring quarterbacks and creating chaos, and it will have every opportunity to do the same against the Saints.
The Saints have been able to keep games respectable at home, but this isn’t the Superdome. It’s outdoors in Green Bay, where it’s going to be colder and tougher for this depleted Saints roster. I expect the Packers to come out aggressive, dominate both sides of the ball and head into halftime with a comfortable lead.
Yes, laying 9.5 points in one half of football leaves little margin for error. A fluky play or turnover could complicate things. But looking at this matchup, the Saints don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up early. If Green Bay avoids mistakes and executes, this should be a relatively easy ticket to cash.
Best Saints-Packers MNF Bet: Packers First Half -9.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
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