After a not-so-profitable race for us at Richmond (we still hit on Aric Almirola to score a top-10 at +275, and we nearly hit on Chase Briscoe to do the same at +225 (he finished 11th), I’m looking to bounce back with my NASCAR Cup Series props. Let’s dive into the top NASCAR matchup and prop bets for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan, including one for Ty Gibbs.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only of strategy guide!
Best NASCAR Prop & Matchup Bets for the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan
Where is the Respect for Ty Gibbs?
Although the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season hasn’t gone as planned for Ty Gibbs and the No. 54 Toyota team, they have started to turn things around during the summer. Coming into July, Gibbs had recorded just four top-10s in 17 races. He then scored a ninth-place finish at the Chicago Street Course before finishing a season-best fifth at Pocono, more than doubling his total laps led this year in the process.
The results haven’t often been there for Gibbs this season, but the speed certainly has been. If you’ve checked out the outright column, you know that Toyota has been exceptionally quick at smooth 1.5-mile intermediates this year, which aren’t entirely dissimilar from Michigan, a smooth two-mile intermediate. The manufacturer controlled nine of the 15 possible top-5 spots in those events by average green-flag speed.
Gibbs usually looked fast at the 1.5-mile intermediates this year but couldn’t finish races. He struggled to a 22nd-place result at Las Vegas after qualifying fourth. He finished a dismal 34th at Kansas after qualifying seventh and recording the fourth-best green-flag speed rating because an accident ended his day early. Finally, Gibbs limped to a 26th-place finish at Charlotte as well after starting 19th.
While a top-10 result at Michigan isn’t a sure thing for Gibbs, it’s worth noting that he notched one here last year in relief of Kurt Busch. Gibbs should come into this event with plenty of confidence, and with him needing some good finishes to get back ahead of the playoff cut line, backing him at odds of +160 (38.5%) via Caesars just to score a top-10 when he is listed south of even by several books should prove sharp.
Best NASCAR Top-10 Bet: Ty Gibbs +160 for 0.33 Units at Caesars
What Was BetMGM Cooking With This Matchup?
Success at Michigan International Speedway is all about raw speed. Last year, in the first race here with the NextGen car, we saw average green-flag speeds top out at 187.9 mph, higher than the 183.5 we had seen the year before. Michigan’s smooth surface doesn’t cause much tire wear, which allows drivers to maintain lightning-quick speeds throughout the event.
Some Cup Series teams are just faster than others, usually as a function of equipment quality and manufacturer investment. For example, Team Penske receives the most from Ford, often leaving other Ford teams with the leftovers. This weekend, one driver from Front Row Racing, one of the least ed Ford teams, is lined up against a Team Penske driver — but the Penske driver is a +115 (46.5%) underdog!
BetMGM has matched Michael McDowell up against Austin Cindric for the FireKeepers Casino 400 for God knows what reason. McDowell and his teammate, Todd Gilliland, have failed to crack the top 20 in average green-flag speed at any 1.5-mile intermediate tracks so far this season. Cindric did so twice, ranking 19th at both Las Vegas and Charlotte. His teammates, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, never ranked outside the top 20.
I just don’t get this number. McDowell and Front Row Motorsports have routinely struggled at Michigan. McDowell finished 28th and ranked last in average green-flag speed here last season. Gilliland, his teammate, finished 27th and ranked second-worst in green-flag speed. They only finished ahead of cars that failed to complete the race. In eight starts here with FRR, McDowell is yet to finish better than 20th. If Cindric can stay out of trouble on Sunday, he should have no problem finishing ahead of McDowell.
Best NASCAR Matchup Prop Bet: Austin Cindric vs. Michael mCDowell +115 for 0.67 Units at BetMGM
