The New York Yankees will host the Houston Astros for a three-game series in the Bronx this weekend. Both teams are looking to assert themselves in the AL playoff hunt, but while Houston is still very much alive in their divisional race, the Yankees are quite far behind. Let’s dig into today’s Astros-Yankees odds as we make our predictions and pick the best MLB bet!
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Astros-Yankees MLB Betting Pick & Prediction: Bronx Bombers a Home Underdog
Astros-Yankees Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Astros: +198 | Yankees: -240
Astros -1.5: +116 | Yankees -1.5: -140
Over 9: -104 | Under 9: -118
The Houston Astros opened as a road favorite for Saturday’s game against the New York Yankees, in no small part because of an edge on the mound. The Astros will start RHP Justin Verlander, who they just acquired from the Mets, which gives them a leg up. Verlander owns a 3.15 ERA and 3.29 xERA, better numbers than New York’s starter. The Yankees will start LHP Nestor Cortes, whose 5.16 ERA and 3.83 xERA don’t inspire nearly as much confidence. Cortes owns a slightly better 4.86 ERA at home but also hasn’t seen game action since May.
Neither the Yankees nor the Astros have much of an advantage over the other in the batter’s box. The Astros rank ninth in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .326, which puts them one spot ahead of the Yankees, who slot in at .325. The Yankees finally got their team leader in the metric back, Aaron Judge, who owns an elite .490 xwOBA. Behind him, only Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton own one about the team average among eligible players. The Astros have a more balanced lineup with five batters above the team average in the metric.
This won’t be the first — or second — time that the Yankees will have lined up against Verlander this season. He limited them to one earned run over six innings in June before holding them scoreless over another six in late July. However, Judge missed both of their prior meetings. While the superstar slugger is hitting only .133 against Verlander across 30 at-bats, he does have a pair of home runs. He’ll need to figure something out against the 40-year-old star if the Yankees are going to pull off the win.
The Yankees are a completely different team with and without Judge. With him, they are a solid 33-22 (60%), but without him, they are an atrocious 24-30 (44.4%). Although the Astros certainly have an advantage on the mound, they’re still a road team, and the Yankees have had plenty of time to figure out what doesn’t work against Verlander, since they’ve done nothing but struggle against him this year. Because we can buy the Yankees at +118 (45.9%) via FanDuel to pull off the home upset, let’s take a risk and hope they can deliver at better-than-coinflip odds.
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Best Astros-Yankees MLB Pick: New York +118 at FanDuel
