The NASCAR Cup Series returns to a short, flat oval this weekend in Richmond, Va. We hit both our prop and matchup bets last weekend, a -118 ticket on Denny Hamlin to beat Kyle Busch. Let’s dive into the top NASCAR matchup and prop bets for Sunday’s Cook Out 400 at Richmond, including one for Chase Briscoe.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only of strategy guide!
Best NASCAR Prop & Matchup Bets for the Cook Out 400 at Richmond
Stewart-Haas Racing is Undervalued
If you’ve read the outright column, you know the comparator events we’re targeting this weekend: Phoenix, Richmond 1, Martinsville and NHMS. There was a 79.7% correlation between average driver rating in those races and at Richmond 2 last season. Further, all four of those tracks featured the new short-track package this year. Two of them, Phoenix and Richmond 1, even featured the same tire setup. What we saw in each of those events suggests that the Stewart-Haas Racing stable is getting overlooked.
Sure, Kevin Harvick is rightfully one of the favorites for the event. But behind him, absolutely no one is getting any respect. Some of it is fair, as his teammates — Chase Briscoe, Aric Almirola and Ryan Preece — have combined for just four top-10 finishes this season. However, it’s important to note that all four of their shared top-10s came in the comparator events. Briscoe ed for three of them with a low finish of P12 at Richmond 1. Almirola added the fourth with a P6 at Martinsville, where Preece led the most laps.
I only want action on two of the SHR cars to get a top-10 result this weekend: Briscoe and Almirola. While I have some faith in Preece, I can’t back him to get his first top-10 of the year at only +550 (15.4%) or shorter. Instead, let’s bet on Briscoe to make it 4-for-5 at flat ovals at FanDuel lists both drivers at odds of +175 (36.4%) and +190 (34.5%), respectively.
Best NASCAR Top-10 Bet: Chase Briscoe +225 for 0.33 Units at BetMGM
Best NASCAR Top-10 Bet: Aric Almirola +275 for 0.17 Units at Bet365
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What Was Caesars Cooking With This Number?
Yeah, yeah, Martin Truex Jr. has been good lately — but is he worth the -145 (59.2%) just to beat Kyle Larson? We can buy Larson, who, , nearly won at Phoenix and did win at Richmond 1 and Martinsville, at odds of +115 (46.5%) via Caesars Sportsbook. Sure, Truex has the momentum and won at NHMS, but the tracks that saw the same package as we’ll see on Sunday all went to Larson or his Hendrick Motorsports teammates.
Let’s also jump back to our comparator track discourse. Larson recorded the best average driver rating across the four events at 122.4. Truex ranked a distant fourth at 101.4. Larson finished ahead of Truex in three of the four events, losing only at NHMS, which used a different tire and saw Larson still finish third. While not a points-paying event, we also saw the same package in use at the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro, an event Larson dominated and outran Truex in.
We’re benefiting from a stunning amount of recency bias here. Larson has finished behind Truex in the three most recent races, two of which he crashed out of after leading laps early, and in five of the last six. However, Larson’s dominant form at short, flat ovals — most of which came early in the season — should have the books favoring him, or, at worst, listing this as a pick’em.
Best NASCAR Matchup Prop Bet: Kyle Larson vs. Martin Truex Jr. +115 for 1 Unit at Caesars
