We were profitable at Pocono but not so much at Richmond. The Fords just uncorked some speed I wasn’t expecting while the Chevrolets looked slow all weekend. I’m looking to bounce back for this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race. We’ve got the FireKeepers Casino 400 on Sunday, August 6 at 1:30 p.m. ET from Michigan International Speedway. Keep reading as I break down the betting odds, make my predictions and identify the top NASCAR bets for this weekend’s action at Michigan — we’re trusting the Toyotas and Christopher Bell.
NASCAR is one of the greatest sports to bet on! This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only of guide to successful NASCAR betting.
NASCAR Predictions for the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan: Race Preview
How Should We Handicap Michigan?
Michigan is one of the most difficult tracks to handicap, especially in 2023. Michigan and Auto Club are the only two-mile D-shaped ovals on the schedule, but Auto Club features a rough, bumpy surface that chews through tires. Michigan does not. Instead, it features a relatively smooth surface that allows drivers to reach higher top speeds — the top average green-flag speed at Auto Club last year was 167.7 mph, far below the 187.9 recorded at Michigan.
Because we see top-end speed like this unleashed almost exclusively at Michigan, it’s tough to find comparators. The 1.5-mile smooth intermediates we see plenty of early on the schedule, like Kansas, Charlotte and Las Vegas, usually produce top average green flag speeds no higher than 180. This year’s fastest top average green flag speed across the three tracks was Ryan Blaney at Charlotte with a 177.4.
While you’d expect drivers with top-end speed at those shorter intermediates to bring a similar advantage to Michigan, that doesn’t always happen. Last year’s Michigan winner, Kevin Harvick, had failed to crack the top 10 in average green-flag speed at the three aforementioned 1.5-mile intermediates. He then ranked fourth in the metric in Michigan.
All of this is to say that I’m not entirely sure how best to handicap Michigan. But while showing top-end speed at intermediates didn’t translate to a win here last year, several drivers competing for the win had shown such speed at those tracks. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, who finished first and second in average green-flag speed at Michigan last year, had ranked first at Las Vegas and Kansas, respectively. Busch crashed out early here last year, but Hamlin tied with Harvick for the most laps led and finished third.
NASCAR Predictions for the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan: Best Bets
Don’t Bet on Ford to Keep Winning at Michigan
One note that you’ll certainly hear bandied about during the broadcast on Sunday is that Ford drivers have won every Cup Series race run at Michigan since August 2017. That’s eight victories, five of which belong to Kevin Harvick. But with Ford lacking top-end speed this year — and NASCAR planning to wait until the end of the season to address the problem — it’s foolish to expect a ninth-straight win for the Blue Ovals.
Instead, Toyota looks best positioned to secure the victory at Michigan this weekend. Although the manufacturers split Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte at one apiece, Toyotas were consistently at the front. Nine of the possible 15 top-5 performers in average green flag speed across the three tracks were Toyota drivers. At least two Toyota drivers cracked the top-5 at each track as well.
We saw the same thing from Toyota here last season. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, then still driving for Joe Gibbs Racing, had the two fastest cars all weekend. Bubba Wallace ranked third in average green-flag speed, Martin Truex Jr. ranked sixth, and Ty Gibbs ranked 10th. The only driver to miss the cut, Christopher Bell, had led 31 laps and won the opening stage before suffering damage in an accident.
Yet despite Toyota’s top-end speed advantage and strong showing here last year, some books are eager to favor the Chevrolet camp. While both DraftKings favor Chevrolet. You’ll find Toyota listed at +155 (39.2%) via DraftKings, which gives us exposure to Hamlin (14.3%), Truex (11.1%), Reddick (7.7%), Bell (6.7%), Wallace (5.8%) and Gibbs (3.2%) — good for 48.8% of implied probability.
Best NASCAR Bet: Toyota +155 for 0.4 Units at DraftKings
Bet on Two Mispriced Toyota Drivers at Michigan
Let’s double down with some extra exposure to a pair of mispriced drivers in the Toyota camp. While it’s usually unwise to put all your eggs in one basket, sharp money has been coming in on these guys all week long, and the numbers are only going to get shorter. Note that I’m limiting myself to a half-unit of exposure on Toyota outright bets, with the following two drivers getting 20% of my unit allocation.
Ty Gibbs clocks in at Caesars. We’re getting a ton of value relative to the market by trusting Gibbs in this spot. It’s worth noting that Gibbs ran in this race last year in relief of Kurt Busch and drove his No. 45 Toyota to a 10th-place finish. Gibbs, who is currently below the playoff cut line, needs some strong runs — or a win — to secure a bid. He my favorite longshot bet for Michigan.
We’ll wrap things up with Christopher Bell. Although he hasn’t been as dominant this year as he was down the stretch last year, Bell has shown plenty of top-notch speed. He ranked seventh in average green flag speed at both Kansas and Charlotte. He also ranked sixth at Kansas. While he never led the Toyota camp in the metric, he was also never far behind. Bell could have won this race last year but for an accident, so getting him at odds of 14-1 (6.7%) at DraftKings when just about everywhere else lists him at 12-1 (7.7%) or shorter should prove sharp.
Best NASCAR Bet: Ty Gibbs 35-1 for 0.03 Units at FanDuel
Best NASCAR Bet: Christopher Bell 14-1 for 0.07 Units at DraftKings
