UFC 300 is just around the corner, but Saturday’s UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 offers up plenty of betting value to exploit. Let’s get into our Court McGee-Alex Morono pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including betting model’s top picks.
Court McGee-Alex Morono Pick, Odds and Preview
McGee-Morono Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Welterweight
McGee: +225 | Morono: -325
McGee +3.5: +135 | Morono -3.5: -145
Over 2.5: -135 | Under 2.5: +105
McGee-Morono Pick & Preview
The final prelim bout matches up veteran journeymen Court McGee (22-12) and Alex Morono (23-9). Both fighters consistently go deep in their fights, and I don’t expect that to change in this one, even with such a lopsided line.
Neither Morono nor McGee are known for their finishing ability. Both fighters’ average fight time exceeds 11 minutes. This is so even with a few first-round stoppages thrown in the mix.
Looking at the raw numbers, 16 of McGee’s 21 fights went over 2.5 rounds (76%). Morono went over in 12 of 19 fights (63%). Combined, they went over in 28 out of 40 fights (70%). This is well over the implied probability for over 2.5 rounds, which sits at only 57%.
The odds are weighted heavily in Morono’s favor. This could skew the data as it pertains to fight time. However, Morono went over 2.5 rounds in eight out of his 12 wins (67%), which exceeds both the rate for his fights generally (63%) and the rate he goes over in losses (57%).
McGee’s losses went over 8 of 11 times (73%), which is lower than his average rate. Nonetheless, it still well exceeds the implied probability of 57%.
This suggests that a Morono win will likely go later into the bout. Given that Morono has an implied probability of victory sitting at around 76%, the over 2.5 seems to be a strong bet in this fight.
Best UFC McGee-Morono Bet & Pick: Over 2.5 -130 at DraftKings
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