Finally, UFC 302 has arrived. Sure, the pay-per-view card is exciting, but what about the prelims? There’s plenty of value there to talk about, too. Let’s get into our Cesar Almeida-Roman Kopylov pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including betting model’s top picks.
Cesar Almeida-Roman Kopylov Pick, Odds and Preview
Almeida-Kopylov Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Almeida: -115 | Kopylov: -110
Almeida +3.5: -180 | Kopylov -3.5: +135
Over 2.5: +105 | Under 2.5: -135
Almeida-Kopylov Pick & Preview
In the last fight on the prelims, Cesar Almeida (5-0) looks to continue climbing the Middleweight ranks against Roman Kopylov (12-3). I’m usually skeptical about overhyping a new UFC fighter based on a small sample size, but Almeida’s background in kickboxing at the highest level quells some of my fears.
Usually, a prospect who wins two fights in dominant fashion comes in with the whole world betting on them, but the public seems to be sleeping on Almeida a bit. This is a nightmare matchup for Romanov, that I expect to go Almeida’s way quite comfortably.
Almeida comes into this fight with an extensive fighting career. With 47 wins in professional kickboxing, it’s unlikely the lights will be too bright for him, despite a step up in competition.
He has cruised to his first two victories in the UFC, with a unanimous decision and a KO under his belt.
Almeida’s opponents put up little resistance against his elite striking. Landing 4.50 significant strikes per minute, compared to the 1.31 significant strikes per minute he’s absorbed, he hasn’t been in much danger at all.
Kopylov won’t be a cakewalk, as he lands 4.66 significant strikes, while only absorbing 4.10. Nonetheless, this is the exact type of fight that’s tailored for Almeida.
Kopylov only averages 0.42 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight-time, so it’s entirely possible he doesn’t attempt a single one throughout the fight.
Kopylov certainly has power, as all his fights in the UFC have come by KO, but Almeida has faced plenty of dangerous strikers in his career. If he can find the range early, he should cruise here.
I like Almeida’s moneyline in this one while laddering it with the spread. Though I usually avoid fighters with little experience, I think the public is sleeping on Almeida too much in this one.
Best UFC Almeida Kopylov Bet & Pick: Cesar Almeida Moneyline -115 at DraftKings
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