It’s Saturday, which means it’s fight night in the UFC. UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 may not offer up as much action as next week’s UFC 300, but there remains plenty of value to exploit. Let’s get into our Trevor Peek-Charlie Campbell pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including betting model’s top picks.
Trevor Peek-Charlie Campbell Pick, Odds and Preview
Peek-Campbell Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Lightweight
Peek: +140 | Campbell: -185
Peek +3.5: +110 | Campbell -3.5: -145
Over 1.5: +114 | Under 1.5: -145
Peek-Campbell Pick & Preview
In the first fight of the main card, Trevor Peek (9-1) takes on Charlie Campbell (8-2). This is yet another matchup that tests a less-proven fighter against a more experienced prospect. I often ride with the experience, particularly as an underdog. I like Peek to come away with the victory in this one.
Peek started his UFC career off solidly. Going 2-1 in his fights after his Contender Series victory, his only loss came against Chepe Mariscal. While his wins came against fighters who have gone a combined 0-3 in the UFC, Campbell’s lone win likewise came against an 0-2 fighter.
Peek’s loss was a dominant victory for Mariscal, but he stayed in the bout the entire time, losing by a unanimous decision. He bounced back nicely, implementing a more wrestle-oriented approach, gaining four takedowns in his next fight.
In his three fights, he landed 5.09 significant strikes per minute at a very strong 56% success rate while only absorbing 4.37 significant strikes per minute. He also gets 1.76 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, which he could attempt to implement against Campbell, who hasn’t been tested with the takedown yet.
Campell’s stats look impeccable. In one UFC fight and one Contender Series fight, he averages 11.03 significant strikes landed per minute while only absorbing 5.42 significant strikes per minute.
However, one of the strikes he absorbed shut his lights out only 1:43 into his Contender Series bout. His second effort went far better with him winning by knockout in just under four minutes.
The problem with Campbell’s performances thus far is that he hasn’t been tested in each facet of the game. His 11.03 strikes per minute, if sustainable, would immediately put him into the conversation of greatest strikers in the UFC. However, that is a big if. It’s more likely that he’ll gas himself out if he continues at such a crazy pace.
These are the types of things prospects learn, often the hard way, as they get more experience. Peek has experience going the distance, defending the takedown, and trying to get back to his feet. While he hasn’t been perfect at it, a talented prospect such as himself generally learns from their mistakes and improves.
I am riding with Peek as the underdog in this one, as I think he will push Campbell in ways he hasn’t yet been in the UFC.
Best UFC Peek-Campbell Bet & Pick: Trevor Peek +140 at DraftKings
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