We JUST MISSED a sweep on Friday! We couldn’t get the NRFI bet to cooperate in Padres-Giants, otherwise we would’ve gone 3-0 on our NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Oakland Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | NRFI & YRFI Bets Today
Like any good roulette player at 2 a.m. always says: “RUN IT BACK!” We’re doing just that with the Athletics-Tigers NRFI on Saturday. We cashed the no run first inning bet yesterday with this game — though we got a TAD lucky in the bottom half with how hard those balls were hit — so let’s fire it up again.
This game has a total of 7.5 or 8 runs, depending on where you look, but I do think that line should be more in the 7-7.5 range — mostly based on the ineptitude of the A’s offense.
Kenta Maeda goes for the Tigers in the top of the first, and, yes, he’s been abysmal this season. But, small samples don’t scare me — especially this early in the season. And, double especially when you are in a get-right spot against a pretty-much quad-A team in Oakland.
I don’t love that Maeda has lost some velocity across the board on his pitches, but I think this is a spot he won’t need all of his normal velocity to get three outs.
The Tigers have stacked their lineup with left-handed hitters against A’s starter Paul Blackburn today. But, that doesn’t scare me too much, honestly. Blackburn isn’t a guy with drastic splits against left-handed batters.
However, he doesn’t have great splits against either handedness if we’re being totally transparent.
But, what he does have is a big ballpark and a top three of the Tigers lineup that all strike out right at 25% of the time. And while Blackburn isn’t the type of guy who’s going to pile up the strikeouts, he can get some when he needs them.
Surprisingly, he was a strikeout-per-inning guy a year ago, notching 104 Ks in 103.2 innings. Check out the strikeout rates of the Tigers’ top three hitters on Blackburn’s best putaway pitch (the slider):
- Parker Meadows: 31.% K rate
- Spencer Torkelson: 35.1% K rate
- Kerry Carpenter: 28.7% K rate
So, if he gets jammed up, the Tigers’ hitters may gift him a strikeout or two. Those are all of the things we love to see when we’re looking for ways to back a NRFI bet, and I think we can look at this one today, especially with decent value at -120.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: A’s-Tigers NRFI -120 DraftKings
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
We boldly went where no NRFI bettor had gone before yesterday and took three no run first inning bets. I wanted to be bold again today, but, I’m a coward. So we’re going to find a way to get a YRFI bet going.
I really like this Philadelphia Phillies offense today against Jake Irvin. The Phillies have a potent top of the lineup with Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper. All of those guys can leave the yard in any given at-bat.
In fact, the OddsShopper Pro Tool actually has Schwarber as a +EV home run bet even at low odds of +235 today. But, the number that really jumps out to me is the 30% expected win rate. He’s expected to hit a home run almost 30% of the time here?
Irvin throws a ton of four-seamers and curveballs to lefties, and we know Schwarbs loves to jump on first-pitch fastballs and can crush a hanger as good as anyone.
In 2023, Schwarber hit 10 home runs off curveballs, which Irvin threw 28% of the time to lefties. We could be in for a first-inning bang from Schwarber here.
And we’d love to see it!
On the other side, we have Ranger Suarez getting a Nationals offense that hasn’t scored a first-inning run all season. So, what gives? Why am I on the YRFI bet here then?
Because I don’t trust Ranger Suarez. I never really have. I never really will.
I love the different ways the Nationals can create runs atop their lineup with CJ Abrams forcing defenses into difficult situations with his power and speed combination. Not only can he crack an extra-base hit, but he’s a threat to steal second — or third — on any pitch.
Lane Thomas is hitting .071 so far this season without a home run, which feels absurd for a guy that we know has some real talent with the bat — especially against lefties. In his 452 career ABs vs lefties, Thomas has a .301 average, .516 slugging percentage and .876 OPS with 19 home runs. If you want to get spicy, I think you could look at a Lane Thomas home run prop at +630 today.
I like both offenses in this game. Mostly because I dislike both pitchers, and I’m willing to take a chance on one of these shlubs giving one up in the first, cashing our YRFI bet today.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Phillies-Nationals YRFI -113 FanDuel
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
OK. We don’t need to get too in-depth on this one. We’ll keep it simple for the final yes/no run first inning bet today.
We’ve got a game with a total of 9 here, and a pair of offenses that can score at will. The Diamondbacks have shown us that before, and we know this Braves offense can drop a 10-spot on you in no time.
Arizona has a new-found approach at the plate this season, going into early attack mode, which is drastically different from their wait-it-out approach we saw last year. They’re going up hacking and being aggressive, looking to drive pitches — and it’s working. So far this season, the Diamondbacks are the No. 1 scoring offense in the first inning. It’s an extremely small sample, but it’s a good sign nonetheless.
They do get to face a lefty in Max Fried today, and we know Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel and Christian Walker all tend to hit the ball better off left-handed pitching. Marte especially, who has been red-hot with home runs in back-to-back games.
The Braves have an argument for one of the best top three or four lineup spots in all of baseball. They’re still atop the ranks in first-inning scoring this season, and that’s despite Ronald Acuna hitting .250 with no home runs and only 3 RBIs.
Arizona’s sending Brandon Pfaadt to the mound today, and I feel a bit sorry for the fella. The Braves have an implied team total of almost 5.5 runs, and checking in on the pitch mix he throws, it lines up pretty well with what Acuna likes to hit — fastballs.
We could be looking at the game where Acuna gets off the mat — much like the Aaron Judge home run call we had earlier this week — but only this time, it comes in leadoff fashion.
Let’s root for some fun here, and ride with the yes run first inning bet. Hopefully, it’ll be Acuna sending one over the wall in right-center and us trotting to the window to cash this YRFI.
