Saturday’s loaded UFC 302 card rolls on with an exciting middleweight bout between Kevin Holland and Michal Oleksiejczuk. Let’s get into our Kevin Holland-Michal Oleksiejczuk pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including betting model’s top picks.
Kevin Holland-Michal Oleksiejczuk Pick, Odds and Preview
Holland-Oleksiejczuk Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Holland: -315 | Oleksiejczuk: +220
Holland -3.5: -195 | Oleksiejczuk +3.5: +145
Over 1.5: -160 | Under 1.5: +124
Holland-Oleksiejczuk Pick & Preview
In the featured bout of the night, Kevin Holland (25-11) looks to get back in the win column by taking down Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-7). While Holland flashed a few submissions in his recent fights, his game isn’t well-tailored to take advantage of Oleksiejczuk’s grappling weaknesses. As such a substantial underdog, I like Oleksiejczuk to win on the feet and overall.
Oleksiejcuk’s losses tend to have something in common. Out of his five UFC defeats, four came by submission. While it’s not a great track record, he’s gone up against a murder’s row of grapplers in amassing these losses. Three of the four came against black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Michel Pereira, Caio Borralho and Jimmy Crute, with the other one coming to BJJ brown belt Ovince Saint-Preux and his notorious Von Flue choke.
Though no loss is a good loss, they aren’t losses to necessarily be ashamed of either. Beyond the losses, his takedown defense leaves something to be desired. He only defends the takedown successfully 48% of the time.
Yet, even with these holes in his game, Kevin Holland isn’t quite tailored to take advantage despite attaining a BJJ black belt of his own. For the past five fights, we’ve been waiting for Holland to use his grappling to his advantage against strikers with questionable ground game.
This was especially true in his last fight against Michael “Venom” Page, and in his fight against Stephen Thompson, in which the fighters agreed to remain on the feet. Even with a BJJ blackbelt, and Olekzieczuk’s struggles in the ground game, oddsmakers find it more likely that Holland wins by KO rather than by submission.
Holland’s reluctance to commit to the takedown isn’t a recent phenomenon. He only averages 0.85 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight-time.
He flashed his grappling ability against Michael Chiesa, winning by submission halfway through the first round, but in his subsequent two fights, he hardly sought to bring the fight to the ground, despite getting beat on the feet.
Without taking Oleksiejczuk to the ground, Holland will have his hands full. Oleksiejczuk lands 5.06 significant strikes per minute, on 50% efficiency. Perhaps more impressively, he defends at a 61% rate, absorbing only 4.26 significant strikes per minute. This plays well against Holland’s inefficiency on the feet of late. In his fights against Page, Jack Della Madallena and Santiago Ponzinibbio, he landed 47%, 35%, and 33% of his significant strikes, respectively.
Without a clear commitment to using his superior grappling, Holland will likely be outmatched on the feet. I, for one, won’t believe he will change his approach any longer, and am riding with Oleksiejczuk at such slanted odds.
Best UFC Holland-Oleksiejczuk Bet & Pick: Oleksiejczuk Moneyline +220 at DraftKings
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