We went 1-0-1 yesterday, cashing our Shohei Ohtani total base and home run tickets while our under for Bryan Woo voided. We’re now up to 6-1-1 since last Thursday, which is pretty nice, if I do say so myself. Because we cashed a home run ticket yesterday, you can get access to our sports betting tools and Discord for just $1 — keep reading to find out how! Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Wednesday, June 11. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
Need more MLB betting action? Check out our MLB player prop betting!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, June 12
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Hogan Harris
The San Diego Padres may not be that good, but they are very good at one thing: avoiding strikeouts. The Padres lead the MLB in strikeouts taken per game (6.7). They’ve been getting even better, too, as they took just three strikeouts on Tuesday, and they averaged just five strikeouts over their last three games.
It’s LHP Hogan Harris on the bump for the Athletics tonight. Harris owns a pedestrian 22.2% strikeout rate this season through 20.1 IP, which is actually up from the 19.7% he recorded last year through 63 IP. With Harris’ strikeout prop trading at 3.5 in most spots, it’s worth noting that he is 2-2 to the under, going over against the Rays and Rangers.
The Padres have been slightly worse at avoiding strikeouts against LHPs, but their 17.2% strikeout rate against southpaws still ranks second in the MLB, and although it clocks in at a slightly higher 18% when they play at their home park, I’m undeterred from fading Harris tonight.
With Harris to stay under 3.5 strikeouts priced between +135 and +100 at most public books — and -111 at Pinnacle, a sharp book, this bet is trading with oodles of market-based MLB betting model:
Our model estimates the breakeven point for all bets, which we call true odds, by indexing the odds from across the market and adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more. In this example, the true odds of Harris to stay under 3.5 strikeouts are estimated to be +113, beating the lines available at DraftKings and Hard Rock.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. But how profitable, you ask? You can see for yourself on our results page:
We’ve built up a 322-bet sample of total strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 6 or higher two hours before game start. Of those bets, 189 were winners, yielding an impressive 16.1% ROI. The model was 9-4 at BetMGM (25.1% ROI), 12-8 at DraftKings (19.3%) and 29-21 at Hard Rock (11.8%).
MLB Player Prop Pick: Hogan Harris total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Shohei Ohtani
No, it’s not Groundhog Day, but we’re running it back with Shohei Ohtani tonight. The superstar slugger went yard for us last night, and I expect him to do it again tonight. Yesterday, I wrote that I didn’t care whether it was RHP Dane Dunning or RHP Jon Gray on the mound first, and with Gray scheduled to start tonight’s game — and Ohtani’s home run odds at an even longer +285 at FanDuel — it’d be hypocritical of me not to bet on Ohtani here.
While Gray’s numbers suggest he is playing better than he has in recent seasons, having coughed up just two home runs in 59.1 IP, I don’t buy it. Gray gave up 22 home runs in 157.1 IP last year. Has the 32-year-old really found something new in his bag to limit opposing power, or is he just getting lucky?
Of course, you should know that I believe it to be the latter. Gray’s expected home run data paints a different picture. He has coughed up 4.3 expected home runs on the season, including seven batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences of Dodger Stadium. Don’t let Gray’s 2.12 ERA fool you: he owns a 3.94 xERA (45th percentile).
We’re backing Ohtani here because lefties own Gray. Sure, they’re slashing only .240/.333/.365 against him this year with one home run, but they slashed .250/.332/.421 with 14 home runs last year. Ohtani is .400/.400/1.100 against Gray with three extra-base hits and two home runs. His .327 xBA (100th percentile) and .623 xSLG (98th) are evidence he can beat anybody.
I’m backing Ohtani to go yard (-105 at DraftKings). Even though some books don’t have Gray as the listed pitcher, beats have reported that he is starting. Further, once Gray exits, Ohtani gets a bullpen that has allowed the seventh-most home runs (30) and owns the fourth-worst ERA (4.80).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Shohei Ohtani home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
