Ugh… after a fantastic 12-3 showing in the NBA Conference Finals, we’ve already equaled our losses with a 1-3 record through Game 2 of the NBA Finals. It’s frustrating, but you can’t be lucky forever. Still, I think we can bounce back and get to .500 tonight with the NBA player prop picks I’ve found with the help of NBA +EV betting tools for Celtics-Mavericks Game 3.
Use our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Celtics-Mavericks Game 3
Luka Doncic Player Prop
The Boston Celtics have to play this one on the road — and likely without Kristaps Porzingis. The Celtics are now trading as 2.5-to-3.5-point underdogs, which doesn’t really make that much sense to me. Sure, it’s functionally a do-or-die game for Dallas, but do we really think they’re up to the task of dethroning this Boston team?
Dallas’ odds will come down, as they usually do, to whether they get a superhuman performance from star Luka Doncic. Doncic dropped 30 in Game 1 and 32 in Game 2. His points prop is now trading at 32.5, a number he has cleared in just five of his last 20 games and in four of his 19 playoff starts.
It might feel wrong to fade Doncic in this spot, but there are plenty of good reasons to do so. For one, Doncic’s shooting splits of 51/38/46 are mostly on pace with what we saw him produce in the regular season (49/38/79), with him shooting slightly better from the field and much worse from the stripe.
For another, the NBA Finals have been really slow. Through Game 2, the average pace was 93.8, far slower than the pace Doncic and the Mavericks played at during the regular season (100.6). Sure, an increase in playing time offsets the slower pace somewhat, but there just aren’t that many chances for Doncic to score. Let’s hold our breath and back him to stay under 32.5 points tonight.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Luka Doncic points live odds page!
P.J. Washington Player Prop
Next up is a pick I dug up with help from our NBA player prop betting model. We faded P.J. Washington in Game 1 due to his reliance on corner 3’s and easy layups, two shot types that the Celtics limit effectively, but he went over his total by a point and a half.
We can now get Washington to stay under 15.5 for odds of -140 at DraftKings. Sure, Washington just scored 17 in Game 2, but he only hung 14 in Game 1, and it’s not like he’s taking different types of shots. Washington has made just one 3-pointer all series, a credit to Boston’s defense, but is averaging four made free-throws per game.
The under for this P.J. Washington prop only has value at DraftKings. It’s an alt line, so it’s already hard to find at most books. Those that are offering it have it priced between -166 and -180 in most cases. The under 14.5 costs between -115 and -140, with Pinnacle, a sharp book, charging -137 for it:
This Washington under is trading with positive expected value (+EV) at DraftKings because of their off-market number. You’d need to pay almost the same price for the under 14.5 at Pinnacle, which is absurd.
The true odds of this bet clock in at -146, so we’re edging out enough value for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $12. Our tools reach that conclusion with a formula based in the Kelly Criterion, an approach to risk and bankroll management.
The tools work by indexing the odds across the market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a fair market price (called true odds) for each wager. If a bet is trading for odds longer than its true odds, it’s time to pounce! That’s what we’re seeing with this bet.
NBA Player Prop Pick: P.J. Washington points live odds page!
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