Skip to content
Categories MLB

MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today for Tuesday, June 4

Updated June 4, 2024 | 10:54 am CDT by Isaiah Sirois

Yesterday’s article split 1-1, cashing a Grayson Rodriguez ticket with ease but losing a Kyle Tucker ticket after he went down with an injury. The bet was looking good, too — he already had a single in just one plate appearance. Oh well, let’s bounce back on FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday. Let’s dive into today’s MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Tuesday, June 4. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.

Need more MLB betting action? Check out our MLB player prop betting!

MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, June 4

React App

MLB Player Prop Pick Today: David Peterson

Let’s start today’s action off with an MLB player prop in tonight’s NL East battle between the New York Mets and Washington Nationals. This matchup is a mostly inconsequential one featuring a pair of National League cellar-dwellers, so what better way to spice things up than by getting some action on it?

The Mets will start LHP David Peterson for the second time this season. He went five innings against the Colorado Rockies with just three strikeouts. He recorded a 13.6% strikeout rate and a 5.63 xERA in that game. Last year, Peterson notched a 26% strikeout rate to go with a 4.96 xERA. He cleared tonight’s strikeout total (4.5) in most of his starts.

But we’re fading Peterson today, largely because of Washington’s ability to avoid strikeouts. The Nats rank 13th in strikeouts per game taken this year (8.14) and ranked second last year. Peterson pitched nine total innings against Washington last year and tallied seven strikeouts, but all but four of those were charged to Alex Call, who has returned to AAA.

Most books have the under 4.5 priced between -105 and -125. There are a few outliers, however — market-based MLB betting model:

What do these numbers mean? The +100 at Fanatics is better than the -104 true odds (a breakeven price) of this bet. Our back-tested simulations show that bets like this one are profitable when wagered over the long term.

We can even tell how profitable this bet should be over the long term by using our FanDuel over a larger sample.

MLB Player Prop Pick: David Peterson total strikeouts live odds page!


MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bobby Witt Jr.

The Kansas City Royals will visit the Cleveland Guardians tonight, and getting on the road should benefit no one more from a home run perspective than Bobby Witt Jr. Sure, six of his nine home runs have come at home this year — but the man has 13.1 expected home runs, largely because just eight of the 23 batted balls that could’ve been home runs would’ve counted at Kauffman Field. A monstrous 14 would’ve cleared the fences at Progressive Field.

Again, Witt’s home slash line (.364/.428/.678) is far better than his road slash line (.262/.303/.402), so this isn’t a traditional split-based wager. We just want the better park factors. Still, it’s not like Witt is unfamiliar with Progressive Field — he slashed .286/.355/.571 here last season with five extra-base hits, one of which was a home run.

Witt takes on RHP Triston McKenzie, who has coughed up 11 actual and 9.8 expected home runs this season. McKenzie’s 3.77 ERA is solid, but his 4.59 xERA (24th percentile) is very much not. Fastball velocity has been an issue for McKenzie, as he is down to 90.9 mph (9th). That will be a problem against Witt, who sports a .866 xSLG against four-seam fastballs this season.

Let’s back Witt to go yard (-117 at Caesars). While he needs to start stepping up on the road more often, today’s matchup is the perfect spot for him to get right. It helps that he sports an elite .334 xBA (100th percentile) and .635 xSLG (98th) as well.

The best MLB player prop bets and home run picks for today, Friday, May 31, including a bet for Bryce Harper...
Sign up for OddsShopper today! Get it for $1 with code “DINGER”!

MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bobby Witt Jr. home run live odds page!

React App

OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips

Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.

Categories MLB
WNBA Best Bets & Player Props Today: This Is Breanna Stewart’s Kryptonite (June 4)
Caesars Sportsbook MLB Promo: Boost Your Profits on Any Home Run Bet Today!
Isaiah Sirois

Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a sports betting analyst at OddsShopper specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar on Sundays. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University and briefly attended Vanderbilt Law School before dropping out to work at OddsShopper.

Next Story

Why the Sportsbooks Hate You When You Actually Start Winning

Trending & Related

MLB Home Run Pick Today for April 22: Let’s Go Off the Beaten Bath for a Bomb…

NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks for Tuesday, April 22

MLB Home Run Pick Today for April 20: Special Giveaway Tomorrow If We Get This Tater …

Betting 101

Why the Sportsbooks Hate You When You Actually Start Winning

What is Portfolio EV? Guide to +EV Sports Betting

Sports Betting Software Showdown: Which Tool Is Right for You?

3 Betting Mistakes That Portfolio EV Catches Instantly (And How It Fixes Them)

Sports Betting Resources

  • Positive EV NFL Bets
  • Expert NFL Picks
  • Live NBA Odds
  • Positive EV NBA Bets
  • Expert NBA Picks
  • Live NFL Odds
  • NFL Parlay Calculator
  • Positive EV MLB Bets
  • Expert MLB Picks
  • Positive EV College Football Bets
  • Expert College Football Picks

Featured Articles

Why the Sportsbooks Hate You When You Actually Start Winning
May 20, 2025 2:17 pm | Dave Loughran
What is Dinger Tuesday? How to Beat FanDuel’s Promotion
May 20, 2025 2:10 pm | Isaiah Sirois
Get a 7-DAY FREE TRIAL Of Portfolio EV Today!
May 20, 2025 10:12 am | Sam Smith
How Portfolio EV Built My NBA Bankroll from $100 to $1,200
May 16, 2025 7:11 am | Greg Ehrenberg
You Don’t Need to Be a Genius to Beat the Books — Just the Right Tools
April 26, 2025 8:15 am | Dave Loughran
NBA Playoffs Are Heating Up — And Portfolio EV s Are Cashing In
April 22, 2025 3:02 pm | Sam Smith

Related Articles

MLB Betting: What are NRFI & YRFI Bets? First Inning Bets Explained
April 23, 2025 7:25 am | Justin Martin
How to Bet on MLB Strikeout Props: Strategy & Expert Advice
April 23, 2025 7:25 am | Isaiah Sirois
How to Be a Profitable MLB Bettor: Finding Positive EV
April 23, 2025 7:25 am | Isaiah Sirois
Ultimate MLB +EV Betting Guide: Build Your Bankroll from Day 1
April 22, 2025 3:02 pm | Sam Smith
MLB Home Run Betting Strategy: How to Profit on Home Run Bets
April 22, 2025 3:02 pm | Isaiah Sirois
How to Bet on MLB Player Props: Tips, Strategy & Expert Advice
April 22, 2025 3:02 pm | Isaiah Sirois

Sports Betting Without Knowing the Sport: How Market-Based +EV Betting Can Beat the Books
May 22, 2025 2:37 pm
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today: Anthony Edwards (May 22)
May 22, 2025 1:07 pm
PrizePicks, DraftKings Pick6 & Underdog Cheat Sheet: Best More/Less Picks Today for NBA & MLB (May 22)
May 22, 2025 10:40 am
Best ParlayPlay Promo Code Today
May 22, 2025 6:57 am
Best Sleeper Promo Code Today
May 22, 2025 6:56 am
Best Underdog Promo Code Today
May 22, 2025 6:56 am
Best Vivid Picks Promo Code Today
May 22, 2025 6:56 am
The Portfolio EV Lab Just Got a Massive Data Upgrade
May 20, 2025 2:47 pm
Why the Sportsbooks Hate You When You Actually Start Winning
May 20, 2025 2:17 pm
What is Dinger Tuesday? How to Beat FanDuel’s Promotion
May 20, 2025 2:10 pm

How Can I Find the Best Sports Betting and DFS App Bonuses?

If you're a new sports bettor, it's hard to know where to start. In fact, it's simpler than it seems, because there are use OddsShopper's Free Bet Converter to maximize your beginning bankroll

Get a bonus code for BetMGM

Get a promo code Caesars Sportsbook

Best DraftKings Promo Code

Get a promo code for DraftKings

Use a promo code for FanDuel

Claim a promo code for PrizePicks

Get a promo code for UnderDog

the ranks of the OddsShopper Hall of Fame

  • Free Expert Picks

    • Free NBA Picks
    • Free MLB Picks
    • Free NFL Picks
    • Free NHL Picks
    • Free NCAAB Picks
    • Free NCAAF Picks
    • Free Golf Picks
    • Free UFC Picks
    • Free EPL Picks
    • Free Tennis Picks
    • Free WNBA Picks
  • Positive EV Bets

    • Positive EV NBA Bets
    • Positive EV MLB Bets
    • Positive EV NFL Bets
    • Positive EV NHL Bets
    • Positive EV NCAAB Bets
    • Positive EV NCAAF Bets
    • Positive EV Golf Bets
    • Positive EV UFC Bets
    • Positive EV EPL Bets
    • Positive EV Tennis Bets
    • Positive EV WNBA Bets
  • Betting Tools

    • Arbitrage Opportunities
    • Parlay Builder
    • PrizePicks Entry Builder
    • Underdog Entry Builder
    • Sleeper Entry Builder
    • Free Bet Converter
  • Articles

    • All Articles
    • NBA Articles
    • NFL Articles
    • NCAAF Articles
    • MLB Articles
    • PGA Articles
    • NHL Articles
    • NASCAR Articles
    • MMA Articles
  • Betting Calculators

    • Expected Value Calculator
    • Hold Calculator
    • Parlay Calculator
    • Odds Converter
  • Live Odds

    • Live NBA Odds
    • Live MLB Odds
    • Live NFL Odds
    • Live NHL Odds
    • Live NCAAB Odds
    • Live NCAAF Odds
    • Live Golf Odds
    • Live UFC Odds
    • Live EPL Odds
    • Live Tennis Odds
  • Sportsbook Promo Codes

    • BetMGM Bonus Codes
    • Bet365 Bonus Codes
    • FanDuel Promo Codes
    • DraftKings Promo Codes
    • Caesars Promo Codes
    • BetRivers Promo Codes
    • Sleeper Fantasy Promo Codes
    • Underdog Fantasy Promo Codes
    • Betr Picks Promo Codes

    • Us
    • of Use
    • Stokastic
OddsShopper Logo
© 2024 Stokastic.All Rights reserved.
This site contains commercial content, We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. OddsShopper makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event. Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.