We had a rough one our last time out, going 2-for-4 on our best bets on Friday and dropping our season record to 30-27. Those are not the results we wanted, but we’re still ahead on the year and ready to get back on track. We have plenty of great basketball today and a fresh slate that holds some extremely promising value. Let’s dive into the matchups and find some of the best WNBA bets and player props today.
The three-game slate tips off today at 7 p.m. ET, with a clash of undefeated vs. winless as the 8-0 Connecticut Sun play host to the 0-8 Washington Mystics. The Sun have an easy path in that game to becoming just the seventh team in WNBA history to go 9-0 to open a season. The New York Liberty visit the Chicago Sky in what’s been an unexpectedly difficult matchup this year for New York. Later, we have a West Coast nightcap with the Phoenix Mercury, who have cooled off over the last few games, visiting the Seattle Storm, who have in turn been heating up.
WNBA Best Bets & Player Props Today: Tuesday, June 4
Washington Mystics-Connecticut Sun Bet
The Connecticut Sun have been playing absolutely stifling defense to open the season, and they’ve been rewarded with an undefeated record to open the season. Connecticut boasts a defensive rating of 89.1, leading the WNBA by a wide margin (the Minnesota Lynx are second at 92.7). The Sun play a disruptive brand of defense, clogging ing lanes and keeping the other side from establishing a consistent offensive rhythm, not allowing them to settle into their team offense. The Sun defense holds opponents to 17.5 assists per 40 minutes, the fewest in the league. They have held down teams with more and better offensive tools than the Mystics. I anticipate a low-scoring game where the Sun still cover the spread easily.
Best WNBA Bet for Mystics-Sun: Sun -12.5
I will also be fading Julie Vanloo, who has filled in as starting point guard for the Mystics with Brittney Sykes injured. Vanloo’s assist prop is at 5.5, and between the Sun’s opponent assist numbers and Washington missing Shakira Austin, a common assist target for Vanloo, I love the under there.
Best WNBA Player Prop: Julie Vanloo Under 5.5 Assists
New York Liberty-Chicago Sky Bet
Honestly, I’m befuddled by a side here. Modeling and gut say the Liberty should cover -6.5 easily, but they’ve been inconsistent and Chicago has been winning this matchup recently. It’s clear that Teresa Weatherspoon, a former Liberty player and interviewee for their most recent head coaching vacancy, puts extra focus on this match. It’s also clear she has a great defensive gameplan for the Liberty from the team’s matchup earlier this season, even when not factoring in the preseason game where Chicago held New York to just 53 points.
Instead of a side, I’m just going to bet on the Sky defense and its ability to hold down Liberty star Breanna Stewart. The reigning MVP’s line is hung at 20.5 points despite her scoring having dipped early in the WNBA season. She’s averaging 17.9 points per game on 43.7% shooting and 18.9% from 3, all of which would be career lows. Stewart is due for a get-right game and some positive regression, but I don’t see those coming against a Sky team that has really impressed on the defensive end, with a top-5 defensive rating and top-4 opponent effective field goal percentage.
Best WNBA Player Prop: Breanna Stewart Under 20.5 Points
Check out our guide to WNBA player prop betting! >>
Phoenix Mercury-Seattle Storm Bet
Looking at these teams’ resumes, you might be tempted to take the points on Phoenix with this spread set at 7.5 in favor of the Storm. After all, both of these teams are around .500 (Storm 5-3, Mercury 4-5) and the Mercury looked surprisingly great to open the season, having an excellent win over the Aces under their belt.
The Mercury are a team that lives and dies by the 3-point shot, and lately they’ve been dying by it. They had lost four straight before beating the Los Angeles Sparks on Sunday, and they were blown out by 20-plus points in two of these games against the Sun and the Lynx.
When you dig into net ratings, the chasm between the Seattle Storm and the Phoenix Mercury becomes clear. The Storm have a +5.1 net rating to the Mercury’s -6. I also have particular concerns about this matchup in the frontcourt for an extra-small Phoenix team that’s still running Sophia Cunningham as its power forward with Rebecca Allen and Brittney Griner injured. The Mercury simply don’t have the personnel to matchup to an All-Star frontcourt duo like Ezi Magbegor and Nneka Ogwumike.
I like the Storm to win this one comfortably by double digits and will probably add some alternates to that effect. But the plain spread at -7.5 or better is worth a hit.
Best WNBA Bet for Mercury-Storm: Storm -7
