The whole darn industry is getting its feet we with Tuesday home run promotions. I can’t imagine where the idea came from, but we welcome the options as we look to make some home run bets. Today we’re looking at a OddsShopper MLB model!
Caesars Sportsbook MLB Home Run Promo & Profit Boost
Caesars‘ home run promotion for the second day of the workweek — very non-confusingly named “Tuesday Dingers” — gives a great spot to boost our profits on the most fun MLB bet. All we need to do is opt in and we will receive a 25% profit boost on any player to hit a home run today!
Given the long odds that home run bets organically have, that 25% can be a pretty massive boost to our payouts if we manage to hit on one.
You know what we have to do now: We need to turn to Caesars.
We can go a couple of different ways with this. One option is simply taking the guy the model deems to have the best chance of hitting a home run. Even if the odds aren’t totally in our favor, the profit boost helps with that and this strategy also gives us the best chance of being able to use the Tuesday Dingers profit boost.
The other avenue is treating this like we would any other bet. That means evaluating the market and taking the best edge possible based on expected win rate and the odds given.
If going with the latter, the best choice here is Bryan Reynolds at +750 on Caesars. The downside here is that Reynolds only has a 12% chance of going deep since he is facing Tyler Glasnow, who I think has struck out every other better he has faced for the last six years. I’ll have to double-check that data, but I am pretty sure he has a 50% strikeout rate. OK, it’s only 34.7%, but still.
What helps Reynolds’ case as the play, however, is the fact that it is the only home run bet on Caesars right now that is even in the ballpark of OddsShopper’s True Odds. Reynold to go deep beats every other bet’s EV by over 3 percentage points. That makes it the best home run value on the board even before we factor in the potential profit boost.
If we opt to take the guy with the best shot at a shot, you probably don’t even need me to tell you who it is. I’ll give you a hint: He’s the co-MVP frontrunner alongside his teammate, he’s 6-foot-7 and he has two more homers than anyone in MLB. That’s right, Aaron Judge has a 32% chance at a home run today as he takes on Bailey Ober and the Twins.
The issue here is that Judge has +150 odds to go deep compared to +212 True Odds, so this bet is 19.7% -EV — aka an irresponsible bet on a long-term scale. The profit boost doesn’t even help get that up to +EV territory. Alas, it is the highest win rate of the bunch.
If you want more of this data to help you with your Caesars MLB home run bets, sign up now for OddsShopper using the coupon code POSITIVE and you will get 50% off your first week or month! That adds up to just over a dollar a day for your first week with the best betting tools out there. Don’t wait too long — this deal won’t last forever!
