Yesterday’s card went 1-1, cashing the home run and total bases for Rafael Devers but losing an under for RHP Colin Rea. That dude really can’t keep getting away with this. Anyway, I’ve got quite a few picks for this evening’s action, and you can find my full card in the Discord. Let’s dig into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Saturday, June 29. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, June 29
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Brandon Marsh
The Philadelphia Phillies are lining up against RHP Roddery Munoz today. Munoz is allowing a stunningly awful 3.4 xHR/9 with a .274 xBA and .568 xSLG. Opposing lefty batters are slashing .286/.367/.714 against him. This would be a good spot to target Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper, but with them both out, we’re left targeting Brandon Marsh.
Don’t get me wrong, Marsh is no slouch himself. He owns a .267 xBA (70th percentile) and .453 xSLG (73rd). He has taken over the cleanup spot against righties with Philadelphia’s offensive injuries piling up, and he is slashing a productive .303/.385/.500 against them.
My concern with Marsh is the lack of actual and expected output, as he has hit only seven actual and five expected home runs on the year over 196 at-bats. The silver lining for us here is that he has seven expected home runs in Citizens Bank Park, where 15 mph winds will be blowing out through left-center field.
I’m trusting Marsh for a home run (+135 at DraftKings). We’re mostly hoping that he can pop early against Munoz, but once the struggling starter exits, Marsh gets a Miami bullpen that ranks fourth-worst in hits allowed (299), so if he can only muster a base hit versus Munoz, it’s not the end of the world.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Brandon Marsh home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Reese Olson
The Detroit Tigers will visit the Los Angeles Angels late on tonight’s slate, and it’s RHP Reese Olson on the bump for the Motor City Kitties. Olson hasn’t had a great season, but his 2-8 record is almost entirely due to a lack of run . His 3.35 ERA and 3.52 xERA are both fine.
However, we’re fading him on the strikeout market in this spot. Olson owns only a 20.7% strikeout rate (38th percentile), and he is recording only 7.8 strikeouts per nine. His line is 5.5, which he has gone over just five times in 15 starts. The Angels aren’t good, but they rank a not-terrible 18th in strikeouts taken per game (8.5).
The under 5.5 is a decent bet today, but only at a few books. You’ll find it trading for odds of between -110 and -140 at every book. However, with Pinnacle, a sharp book, charging -134 for this prop, the -110 has value. We’re getting plenty of Fliff and Hard Rock:
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
With this bet, Olson’s true odds of staying under 5.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be -124, which is beating the number at most public books right now, but especially Fliff and Hard Rock.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
This year, our model has identified 146 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 10 or higher with at least two hours before game start. We cashed 86 of them, netting us a clean 19.1% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Reese Olson total strikeouts live odds page!
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