It was a profitable day for my full card, but yesterday’s article only split 1-1, cashing a Corbin Burnes under but losing an Aaron Judge over. With an absolutely abysmal slate of starting pitchers on tap, I’ve got several picks for this evening’s action, and you can find my full card in the Discord. Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Friday, June 28. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, June 28
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Rafael Devers
I’m not sure what the sportsbooks are cooking with this line, but Rafael Devers is +400 at Fanatics to go yard today. Sure, he has a home run in back-to-back games, a pace he can’t sustain forever, but this pitching matchup is too good to up. Also, we saw Devers hit home runs in six-straight games back in May, so it’s not entirely unprecedented.
Devers is taking on the San Diego Padres and RHP Randy Vasquez at Fenway Park today. To be blunt, Vasquez is terrible. He is allowing LHBs to slash .474/.523/.718 against him. His 6.81 xERA (1st percentile) and .335 xBA (1st) suggest he is overmatched at this level of competition.
Meanwhile, Devers is slashing a dominant .303/.392/.642 versus RHPs this season, including 14 of his 16 actual home runs. Devers has mashed 16.3 expected home runs this season. While that number drops to 14 at Fenway, a healthy number of those batted balls turn into doubles.
We’re backing Devers for a home run (-110 at Fanatics). While a lot of our hopes depend on his at-bats against Vasquez, San Diego’s bullpen has also coughed up the 11th-most home runs (34) and the seventh-most hits (281), both of which inspire some faith if Devers can only muster a base hit on Vasquez.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Rafael Devers home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Colin Rea
This bet won’t be around forever, so lock it in while you can. I’m a known skeptic of RHP Colin Rea — his 6-2 record and 3.62 ERA paint a pretty picture, but it’s not one that stands up to his expected stats. The 5.34 xERA (9th percentile) and .289 xBA (6th) show that Rea can get shelled — and easily — in the wrong spot.
Rea also isn’t a great strikeout pitcher, sporting a 15.6% strikeout rate. He does get a strikeout-heavy team in the Chicago Cubs today, who rank 24th in strikeouts per game (8.9) and 25th in strikeout rate versus RHPs (24.5%), but I’m undeterred because of the value we’re getting relative to the market.
Rea’s strikeout prop is trading at 4.5. You’ll find it posted for odds ranging from +115 to -125. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging -105 for this prop. As a result, the +115 at hard Rock and +110 at positive expected value (+EV) for us to buy:
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
Here, Rea’s true odds of staying under 4.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be -104, a number is beating the price available at the aforementioned books.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
This year, our model has identified 144 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 10 or higher with at least two hours before game start. We cashed 85 of those tickets, securing us a tidy 19.5% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Colin Rea Under 4.5 Total Strikeouts +115 at Hard Rock
For the best price currently available, check out our Colin Rea total strikeouts live odds page!
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