I’m off on Sundays, but we bounced back after a mid-week slump with a 2-0 sweep on Saturday. Our Yoshinobu Yamamoto under hit due to his early exit but looked on track before then, and Gunnar Henderson delivered with two bases (just not a home run) to boot. Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Monday, June 17. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, June 17
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Jon Gray
The Texas Rangers are getting a lot more out of RHP Jon Gray than they should be. Gray sports a 2.17 ERA despite having a 4.19 xERA (36th percentile). Opposing batters are hitting just .235 against him despite his .270 xBA (17th). The wheels will come off eventually, and tonight is a good spot to fade him.
Gray owns a 24.3% strikeout rate this year (62nd percentile), which is up from the 21.6% he recorded last year and. The 32-year-old is averaging just 4.8 strikeouts per start this season, yet his strikeout prop is trading at a lofty 5.5 for tonight’s game against the New York Mets.
The red-hot Mets have been good at avoiding strikeouts this season. They rank ninth in strikeouts taken per game (7.9) and fifth in strikeouts per road game (7.7). They are one of four teams tied for the ninth-best strikeout rate against RHPs (21.1%) as well.
The under 5.5 is trading for odds between -130 and -145 at most public books. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this bet priced at -164. However, market-based MLB betting model:
Our model calculates the breakeven point for all bets, which we call true odds, by indexing the odds from across the market and adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more. For Gray’s under today, his true odds of staying under 5.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be -133, edging out the price available at Fliff and a few other books.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
Since the beginning of this MLB season, our model has identified 1,626 total strikeout props with an OS Rating of 1 or higher at least two hours before game start. A whopping 914 of those bets were winners, good for a 10.4% ROI. We went 41-27 at Caesars as well, which yielded an 18.8% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Jon Gray total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bryce Harper
The Philadelphia Phillies will host the San Diego Padres today at Citizens Bank Park, where the MLB weather report calls for 13 mph winds blowing straight out. That’s a big issue for RHP Randy Vasquez, who is allowing 1.8 xHR/9 this year. Vasquez’s 5.95 xERA (4th percentile) and .318 xBA make him a fantastic target for batter props.
While expected stats like xERA are a key part of my home run betting strategy, we’ve got some actual stats to note here, too. Lefty batters are slashing an absurd .448/.484/.707 against Vasquez across a 58 at-bat sample. That includes seven extra-base hits and four home runs.
As a lefty, Bryce Harper is in a great spot to beat up Vasquez. He is slashing .275.388/.517 versus RHPs this year with 16 extra-base hits and 10 home runs. Harper has 15 total home runs this season, 14 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Citizens Bank Park.
Harper enters this game in superb form. He is slashing .295/.426/.432 over the last 15 days. While the power is missing from that line, the isn’t, which is why I’m backing Harper to both go yard (-115 at BetMGM).
I’m optimistic that Harper can find some extra power at home against a struggling RHP, but if he can’t, he should at least get a double or a pair of base hits.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bryce Harper home run live odds page!
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