We broke our NBA SGP win streak on Friday, but we have still hit two of our last three for Mavericks-Celtics, so we’re in a good spot. Plus, this may be our last NBA parlay of the year if the Celtics get back to business. We can’t waste any more time; as always, these same-game parlays are all about building long-term profitability, not just results here and now. Now let’s create a Parlay Builder.
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Mavericks-Celtics Parlay: BetMGM SGP With Al Horford
Leg #1: Al Horford Under 6.5 Rebounds
Folks are probably looking at the big rotation for the Celtics as a major factor of this bet living or dying — and no one player will draw more eyes than Kristaps Porzingis.
Porzingis has missed the last two games, but Joe Mazzulla said prior to Game 4 that Porzingis would be available in limited action. Well, Dallas put the game away by halftime, so Porzingis ended up not seeing the floor and the starters left in the third. Throw that game away because Horford only played 23 minutes.
The game prior that Porzingis missed, Horford played 37 minutes and only recorded five rebounds. Now, that one-game sample is not exactly a better indicator for Horford than the 6.9 he is averaging per game in the playoffs, but it does demonstrate that Horford’s rebounding isn’t 100% tied to Porzingis’ playing time.
So do Games 1 and 2 where Porzingis played and Horford got less than 30 minutes and still hit this over. Tonight the reports are that Porzingis is getting the same treatment as he got in Game 4: Action in specific situations when needed, likely nothing more. That portends about 30-ish minutes again for Horford, and given his playoff averages, that playing time puts him right at this line.
We turn to the market as told to us through OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder. It has Horford under 6.5 rebounds at -100 True Odds, so the +105 BetMGM odds give us a little wiggle room on a bet with a 50% chance of hitting. That makes this bet positive by 2.5%.
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Leg #2: Jrue Holiday Under 13.5 Points
If you’re new to backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you — and short-term gains shouldn’t convince you that you have everything down pat.
All that said, yes, we are fading Holiday’s points again.
But do note that our win rate and expected value on this under are not particularly high despite Holiday going for 10 and 9 points in his last two and taking only 19 combined shots in those games.
He is the Celtic with championship pedigree, having come up huge in big games for the Bucks in 2021. Saying with certainty he will defer again is not the strategy. The strategy is market based, and there is +EV to be had in adding this under to our parlay on BetMGM.
Holiday under 13.5 points has a 53% win expectancy, which is not overly high, but that does create -112 True Odds according to OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder. That makes this bet +EV by a tick below 1% — and believe it or not, that makes it the second-best player prop for this game. The books have nailed their lines for Game 5.
But we’ve broken through and grabbed a +EV parlay anyway, getting this one at +291 odds for a 3.32% return and a 26% win rate. It’s not our highest-value Mavericks-Celtics SGP thus far, but it is the best we’re getting tonight.
Mavericks-Celtics Parlay Today: +291 at BetMGM
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