The Dallas Mavericks kept their hopes alive with a surprising Game 4 win. While it’s asking a lot for them to dig out of a three-game hole, it could happen — but it seems quite unlikely. Let’s dive into our NBA NBA +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Mavericks-Celtics Expert Picks & Predictions: NBA Finals Game 5
NBA Celtics-Mavericks Expert Picks & Predictions for NBA Finals Game 5
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Mavericks-Celtics Odds
Odds via DraftKings
DAL ML: +205 | BOS ML: -250
DAL +6.5: -108 | BOS -6.5: -112
Over 210: -108 | Under 210: -112
Celtics-Mavericks Picks & Predictions
@shanderbets – P.J. Washington O/U 12.5 PTS: P.J. Washington was limited last game due to foul trouble, but when he’s not hacking away, he has been a vital piece for Dallas. Despite their 3-1 hole, the Mavs should continue to feed both minutes and shots to Washington.
Washington played at least 36 minutes in each of the other three games, scoring at least 13 points in all of them. He is crucial if Dallas wants to keep this close and will continue to get at least nine — if not more — field goal attempts tonight against Boston. Take him at the alt line for plus money to just get back to 13.
NBA Finals Game 5 Expert Pick & Prediction: P.J. Washington Over 12.5 Points +104 at FanDuel
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Kyrie Irving O/U 23.5 PTS: I’m not sure what the books are cooking here. When Kyrie Irving returned to the TD Garden for Game 1, he stunk it up by scoring 12 points in 37 minutes on splits of 32/0/NA. Game 2 wasn’t much better: he scored 16 on 39/0/100. He put together a good showing in Game 3, scoring 35 on 46/67/100, before disappearing again in Game 4 with 21 on 56/17/NA.
Irving is back in the Garden for Game 5. He hasn’t shown nearly enough in of efficiency or shot volume to warrant backing him to sur the 23.5. We’ve seen Irving in 21 playoff games with the Mavericks, and he has cleared the 23.5 only seven times.
While it’s true that Irving has an impressive record in elimination games, I just don’t see him popping off tonight. Boston’s defensive rating in the postseason clocks in at a dominant 108.7, down from 110.6 in the regular season, and at 106.9 this series.
It’s a good spot to fade him, then, right?
What’s more is that these teams have slowed down considerably this series. The average pace for it has been 94, which is way down from the 100.6 the Mavericks played at in the regular season. All of Dallas’ playoff series have featured a pace in the 92-to-94 range, so while the slower pace isn’t a unique trend for the finals, it suggests Irving’s reduced average of 22.5 points per game is the norm.
NBA Finals Game 5 Expert Pick & Prediction: Kyrie Irving Under 23.5 Points -102 at DraftKings
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