While yesterday’s article faceplanted with an 0-2 showing, the full card, which you can find on expert picks page, netted a 0.3-unit profit. Those aren’t the kinds of returns we hope for in this space, but small margins like that one add up over time. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Friday, July 12. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, July 12
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Jonathan India
I’m more excited about the total bases part of this bet, but I’ll say that backing Jonathan India for a big day at the plate is sharp. He’ll take on RHP Yonny Chirinos in this spot, and India is slashing .263/.363/.405 with five home runs versus RHPs this year after slashing .257/.349/.432 with 14 home runs versus them last year.
Chirinos is a great under-the-radar pitcher to target. While he has only thrown 19.1 IP this year, those produced four batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Great American Ball Park, good for 1.9 HR/9 in Cincinnati, far higher than his general rate of 1.3 xHR/9.
Likewise, India may not stand out on the home run markets, but he should, especially due to his recent form. India has more expected home runs in the last month than he had in the entire season until June 15. Further, on the year, India has 10 expected home runs in Great American.
The peripheral stats are also great for India. He sports a .289 xBA (90th percentile) and .417 xSLG (53rd), so even if he can’t rattle off an extra-base hit, he is more capable than most of following one base hit with another. Let’s hope India can get the job done by clearing the fences, but if he can’t, I have faith he’ll make us a profit another way.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Jonathan India home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Hogan Harris
There’s a bit of an asterisk next to today’s top MLB player prop pick — LHP Hogan Harris, the guy we’re fading, may not play at all. The weather in Philadelphia is sketchy, with at least a 50% chance of precipitation for much of the day and night. But if Harris does play this evening, he is cruising for a bruising.
Harris’ 3.22 ERA may suggest he is a capable pitcher. It should not. He sports a 5.56 xERA (7th percentile) and .281 xBA (9th). His 18.3% strikeout rate has helped him record over 3.5 strikeouts in just four of his nine appearances, all of which lasted for at least 3.1 IP.
This Philadelphia team isn’t perfect, but with Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber all healthy, things could start getting ugly again for opposing pitchers. Harris’ under will cost positive expected value (+EV):
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
With this bet, we can see that Harris’ true odds of staying under 3.5 strikeouts come out to +122. The +132 on FanDuel, as you can tell, clears that by a wide margin, and no other price does. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
This year, our model has identified 649 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 4 or higher with at least two hours until game start. We cashed 379 of those tickets on our way to an absurd 14.8% ROI, including a 15.3 ROI at FanDuel!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Hogan Harris total strikeouts live odds page!
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