As the MLB All-Star Break approaches, we’ve got one last series to squeeze in this weekend. The last time MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday, July 12
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday, July 12
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Lowe gets a strong-side platoon advantage tonight, where he’s absolutely MASHED right-handed pitching over the course of his career, to the tune of .347 OBP,. 493 SLG, .243 ISO and 133 wRC+.
While the Rays are projected for only 4.3 runs tonight, this feels like a mis-click by the books, especially with the amount of Carrasco allows. The Rays make a lot of and generally score their runs by stringing hits together. And for a guy like Carrasco, who is giving up a 90.6% zone rating, this is a spot where the hit parade could be on early.
With the type of power Lowe has shown against righties in his career, extra-base hit potential is definitely on the table against Carrasco. And with solid bats like Isaac Paredes, Josh Lowe and Randy Arozarena likely hitting behind him tonight, Lowe has the potential to score a run easily.
And if you’re into small samples — because, hey, we’ve all heard size doesn’t matter, eh? — Lowe is 4-for-8 against Carrasco in his career with a double, triple, two home runs and three RBIs. It’s the nearly even-money value that’s drawing me in here against an awful pitcher in Carrasco tonight. I’m putting my coin on this one confidently.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Brandon Lower Over 1.5 H/R/RBI -105 at ESPN BET
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Luis Arraez O/U 1.5 TB: I could talk about the pitcher starting for the San Diego Padres, RHP Randy Vasquez, who is allowing a .431/.477/.667 slash line to LHBs, so with Matt Olson slashing .274/.339/.519 versus LHPs… well, you get the deal. But instead, we’re talking about RHP Spencer Schwellenbach and his .279/.330/.512 slash line allowed to LHBs.
While Schwellenbach isn’t letting LHBs get on base nearly half the time like Vasquez has been, that .279 BA against him isn’t inconsequential. Schwellenbach sports a .258 xBA overall (29th percentile) to go with his 5.6% walk rate (82nd), so batters are getting plenty of and not a ton of free es.
Schwellenbach profiles spectacularly for us to target Luis Arraez, who sports a .308 BA and .321 xBA (99th). Arraez is slashing .322/.351/.402 versus RHPs, incurring almost no walks, which helps explain his paltry 3.7% walk rate (4th). We’re getting a batter who records plenty of against a pitcher who allows lots of it.
We will likely need Arraez to get multiple base hits, and once Schwellenbach exits, Arraez will face a stingy Atlanta Braves bullpen that ranks an impressive third in hits allowed (254) and first in walks allowed (92).
While that could be tricky, the odds of Arraez getting two base hits against Schwellenbach — or extra bases against him once — are higher than the books would have you believe. Arraez sports a nice .410 xSLG (49th percentile) while Schwellenbach is allowing a .512 SLG to LHBs.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Bases +110 at BetMGM
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