The MLB rolls on with another action-packed slate on tap for tonight. Let’s waste no time diving into our top MLB picks today as our experts break down their best MLB bets for Tuesday, April 2, including a Yu Darvish pick. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB player prop betting.
MLB Picks Today: Expert Bets for Tuesday, April 2
MLB Expert Pick #1: Best Harold Ramirez Bet
Harold Ramirez gets the luxury of facing left-hander Andrew Heaney today, who throws either a four-seam fastball or a slider 83.1% of the time (57.9% for fastballs, 25.2% for sliders).
Three factors really come into play here as to why we’re firing up this home run bet: (1) Ramirez’s career vs LHP: .323 AVG, .452 SLG, .813 OPS; (2) the two pitches he NUKES: four-seamers and sliders; (3) we’re getting him at +800, which is way too much value for a guy like him.
His hard-hit rates on fastballs and sliders a year ago were 50.6% and 29%, respectively, and the whiff rate was low as well. So, when he was swinging, he wasn’t missing, and he was hitting everything … HARD.
At +800 we don’t need to hit this puppy often to make a profit. I like the Rays offense all around tonight, and I’ll take a shot on a guy in the heart of the order with great metrics on the right side of the platoon advantage.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Harold Ramirez To Hit a Home Run +800 at BetMGM
MLB Expert Pick #2: Best Yu Darvish Bet
Our MLB betting tools advise that you get some action on this Yu Darvish strikeout bet for this evening’s slate before the all the value gets gobbled up by other bettors. The early bird gets the worm with picks like these.
FanDuel is offering the Yu Darvish under 6.5 total strikeouts for only -134 — and that’s with the rest of the public books taking action on this bet for -140 or steeper — and Pinnacle, a sharp book, pricing it at -165.
Using a market-based betting approach can feel weird, but it’s profitable. Between the start of the NBA season and the All-Star Break, the model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip and 5% on those wagered two hours before tip.
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MLB Pick: Yu Darvish Under 5.5 Total Strikeouts +115 at Hard Rock
MLB Expert Pick #3: Best Graham Ashcraft Bet
I’m just not confident that Graham Ashcraft will be in the game long enough to hit 5 Ks. While the Phillies bats have yet to heat up, they aren’t reckless enough to aid a guy with a 17.8% K rate.
The Phillies suffered another late loss last night and will look to make Ashcraft work. We get a fantastic price off OddsShopper at +112 on FanDuel that is beating the market price of -102.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Graham Ashcraft Under 4.5 Strikeouts +112 at FanDuel
MLB Expert Pick #4: Best Manny Machado Bet
So you’ve probably heard about FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday — if you haven’t, if you opt-in and place a $25 bet on someone to hit a home run, you’ll receive $5 in bonus bets for each home run hit in that game. We’ll have some specific Dinger Tuesday home run picks today, but this one isn’t a bad play for the promotion.
RHH Manny Machado will take on the St. Louis Cardinals today. Targeting him for Dinger Tuesday is a bit awkward because we’ve got neither wind blowing out in our favor nor a hitter-friendly park — but even a glance at the MLB weather report today reveals that several of our alternatives could get rained out.
Machado draws RHP Miles Mikolas, which is a great matchup for our purposes. Mikolas coughed up 28.7 xHR last season, 29 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Petco Park, including a fly-out hit by Machado that would’ve counted as a home run in 18 stadiums. Unfortunately, just not Petco Park.
But Mikolas’ struggles from last season seem to have continued into this year. Last year, he notched a 5.44 xERA and (11th percentile) and .291 xBA allowed (5th percentile); in his first start of the year, he notched a 10.38 ERA and allowed a .412 BA. Sure, it’s a one-game sample — and he was facing the Los Angeles Dodgers — but he remains a fade for us.
We’re getting Machado to go Dinger Tuesday card). Mikolas struggled more against LHHs like Fernando Tatis Jr. than RHHs like Machado, but Tatis is trading at only -110 to tally multiple bases, and Machado is slashing a steady .261/.346/.478 versus RHPs to open the year. I recommend getting exposure to them both today.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases +110 at Fanatics
