We kicked off the week on the right foot by scoring a 2-0 sweep on Monday, cashing an over for Wendell Carter Jr. and an under for Pascal Siakam. We’ve got a loaded NBA slate today, including a pair of games on TNT, and I’ve dug up plenty of high-value spots with the help of OddsShopper . In today’s article, I have NBA player prop picks for Khris Middleton and Jalen Green.
To gain access to my picks in real-time, ensuring you get the best odds, subscribe to expert picks page), my NBA cards from this season sit at +18.3u.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jalen Green & More
Jalen Green Player Prop
I took two picks trading with positive expected value (+EV) and combined them for my top NBA player prop pick today. Jalen Green is trading with +EV to stay under 24.5 points (-115 at Fanatics; -146 at Pinnacle) and 3.5 assists (+132 at FanDuel; +116 at Pinnacle). Instead of playing either of those lines straight up, I recommend buying Green to stay under 28.5 points and assists for -106 at FanDuel.
Green has been red-hot since the All-Star Break, averaging 25.1 points and 3.7 assists per game (28.8 total), but tonight’s road matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves is a big regression spot for him. Green’s production has been the product of both an increase in volume and a (likely unsustainable) increase in efficiency.
While Green’s high usage rate (27.2% pre-ASB; 28.9% post-ASB) is here to stay, especially with Alperen Sengün still out, his shooting splits (41/31/80 pre-ASB; 46/40/79 post-ASB) probably aren’t. Now he’ll have to face a tricky defense on the road, which hasn’t gone well for him this year — Green’s home and road splits are the biggest reason I’m excited to fade him tonight.
Green is averaging only 19.4 points and 3.8 assists per game (23.2 total) when playing away from Houston this season. His road shooting splits (41/33/81) are worse than what we’ve seen him do at home (44/35/79). Minnesota’s defense, which ranks first in defensive rating on the year (108.2) and third since the All-Star Break (108.1) won’t make his life easy tonight.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Green Under 28.5 Points & Assists -106 at FanDuel
Khris Middleton Player Prop
Next up, let’s dive into my favorite pick from OddsShopper all before beginning my research. Before I even started digging into matchups, this prop jumped off the page. We’re fading Khris Middleton against the Washington Wizards today.
The Wizards, losers of three straight, have tapped out of the season. At 14-61, they’re just one game ahead of the Detroit Pistons for the NBA’s worst record. Milwaukee is scheduled to play again tomorrow, so even though Damian Lillard is out (and both Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo are probable), I suspect we won’t see much of Middleton tonight. That’s an issue because Middleton averages only 0.67 points per minute without Lillard this year, requiring him to play 27-plus minutes to clear this number, which he has done in just six of the 15 double-digit wins he has been active for.
Our tools’ process is less subjective than my analysis. It logs the odds from across the market; adjusts them for factors such as hold, book sharpness and more; and uses those numbers to produce a breakeven price (or “true odds“) for each wager. When a line is trading for longer odds than the true odds, the model advises betting on it. That’s what we see with this Middleton bet today:
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine!
Our results aren’t the product of variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Khris Middleton Under 17.5 Points +126 at Caesars
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