The WNBA offers up a three-game slate this evening, with action beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET. While there’s no Indiana Fever game for the Caitlin Clark crowd, we do have the Chicago Sky and Angel Reese facing the Seattle Storm on the late slate. Despite falling to No. 7 in the 2024 WNBA Draft, Reese, like Clark, has already qualified for an All-Star Game, proving her doubters wrong. Without further ado, let’s dive into the top WNBA player prop picks today for Friday, July 5.
Just started betting on the WNBA player prop betting for some tips!
Best WNBA Player Prop Picks Today: Friday, July 5
My Top WNBA Player Prop Pick
Let’s start with the pick I originated for today’s slate of WNBA action. We’ve got the Dallas Wings on this card, and they’ve been quite profitable for those who have faded them. At 4-16 and 7-13 ATS, the Wings just aren’t good. Despite this, they’re a 4.5-point favorite against the Atlanta Dream.
Dallas’ problem stems from non-existent frontcourt defense. The Wings are allowing the most points in the paint per game (39.8). They are also tied for the most made field goals allowed in the restricted area (14.3). Couple this with them allowing the most made field goals per game (32.2), and you’ve got a recipe for overs.
We’re backing Tina Charles to go over 16.5 points for +100 at BetMGM in this spot. Charles is a bit undersized for a center, but she leads the Dream in shots made in the restricted area (2.5) and points scored in the paint (7.4). She has been getting to the cup at a higher clip lately, too, averaging 3 shots made in the restricted area and 9.7 points scored in the paint since June 15.
Best WNBA Player Prop Pick: Tina Charles Over 16.5 Points +100 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s Top WNBA Player Prop Pick
With my pick out of the way, let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s market-based betting model advises getting some of our action. It’s dug up an off-market number on FanDuel that’s off-market enough for us to get some action down on tonight’s game between the Seattle Storm and Chicago Sky:
The model thinks there’s value here because FanDuel is charging only +100 for a bet that will cost you at best -109 elsewhere — and between -115 and -135 at most sportsbooks. That disparity is worth exploiting today.
The edge we’re getting is good enough for this bet to be rendering with an OS Rating of 4. On the year, we are 187-136 (12.5% ROI) for all WNBA bets with an OS Rating of 4 or higher and at least two hours before game start. When it comes to points props, our model is 66-42 (15.8%) through that sample; when it comes to bets at FanDuel, it’s 14-9 (20.8%).
Best WNBA Player Prop Pick: Ezi Magbegor Under 13.5 Points +100 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s WNBA Betting Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 WNBA predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
