It’s almost time again for another major in the PGA Tour season with the US Open rapidly approaching. There will be plenty of time to break down the third major of the season, but right now we get an elevated event with around 70 of the tour’s best going to Muirfield Village for the Memorial. This Jack Nicklaus layout is a familiar one, as it’s the host of this tournament each year and a fair but challenging test of golf. For the outright market, we have to balance shorter prices due to a small field with the top-end talent. That presents an interesting dynamic when building out an outright card. With that in mind, let’s get into the PGA best bets for the Memorial 2024.
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The Memorial PGA Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for 2024
The Memorial PGA Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +360 |
| Rory McIlroy | +900 |
| Xander Schauffele | +900 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1400 |
| Viktor Hovland | +1800 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2500 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2500 |
| Justin Thomas | +3000 |
Muirfield Village is one of the more well-known courses on tour, and most of the field should be familiar with the challenge ahead. Firm and fast defines this par 72 that measures just over 7,500 yards providing a challenge for all types of players. It wouldn’t hurt to be an elite bentgrass putter, but every club in the bag gets tested here. Step 1 to having success is scoring on the par 5’s which past winners have done in bunches.
The recipe for the rest of the course is avoiding huge mistakes and having the irons dialed in. I’ll be looking at total driving, par-5 scoring and some scrambling ability, which is a fancy way of saying I need a well-rounded golfer this week.
PGA Outright Pick #1: Rory McIlroy
The good news about putting Rory McIlroy on the betting card is he has a lot of win equity. Now, 9-1 on an outright is always tricky, but a smaller field and an in-form McIlroy have me buying. He’s sitting at 11-1 for the US Open the following week, which is interesting even if there’s a lot that goes into the differences between this week and next. Regardless of his major chances, McIlroy is heading to Muirfield Village with every club in the bag working, including some hot putting in recent weeks. Last week in Canada, McIlroy gained another five-plus strokes with his flat stick, and when he rolls it, he automatically gets in the hunt.
Given the skillset needed to deal with this type of long layout, immediately some of McIlroy’s best assets come to mind. When he’s at the height of his powers, his driving is unmatched, which should allow him reasonable irons into these par 5’s. If he can convert the putts, he will absolutely be there come Sunday, and this could be another steppingstone to a big few weeks for McIlroy. One thing to note is that, if you want to back McIlroy for the US Open, I would bet him now because that number will only drop after a good showing this week.
The PGA Memorial Pick: Rory McIlroy (9-1, FanDuel)
PGA Outright Pick #2: Justin Thomas
This is a fascinating breakdown, as Justin Thomas has been a difficult evaluation all year. On a macro level, it feels like a subpar year for a guy who is looking to add more majors. Missed cuts at the Players and Masters add evidence to that, but at the same time there are plenty of positive results in the 2024 season.
Thomas comes off a fifth at the RBC Heritage, a 21st at the Wells Fargo and an eighth last time out at the PGA Championship. None of these results jump off the page, but it’s solid progress for a guy who at times was searching. More important than the finishes were the ball striking numbers that jump off the page. At the PGA Championship, Thomas gained 13.5 strokes tee to green but was unable to convert much of anything on the greens.
He now goes to Memorial, where it’s a mixed bag of results over the years for Thomas.
The putting/iron combo have landed him inside the top 10 sometimes, while other years it was the exact opposite, with a missed cut thanks to making nothing on the greens. I am encouraged at where his game is, and it feels like he might be finding form at the right time.
Thomas’ tee-to-green numbers are as good as anyone’s over the past month or so, which leads us to the dreaded, “can he make enough putts to win?” question. That part of the equation is always a guessing game, but 30-1 allows me to pay to find out. I’ll take a shot that Thomas is just a hot putting week away, and I plan to back him both this week and next at the US Open.
The Memorial PGA Pick: Justin Thomas (30-1, FanDuel)
PGA Outright Pick #3: Byeong Hun An
The hunt continues for Byeong Hun An desperately seeking his first PGA Tour win. He continues to play PGA-winning golf, and that is always Step 1 towards getting a breakthrough win. Step 2 is usually about getting a hot putting week, which traditionally ended the conversation about An. However, in 2024 that isn’t the case, as his putter has shown the ability to heat up at times. We don’t care as much if he loses five strokes or two strokes putting; either way, he’s not winning the event. What we do care about is that, just a few weeks ago at the Wells Fargo, An finished third thanks to eight strokes gained putting. That at least is in the range of outcomes and is a big change from years past.
There are a lot of positives with his overall game — not just strokes gained data but also the results. An finished 16th at the Masters, fourth at the Byron Nelson and third at the Wells Fargo, all within the last few months. His off-tee game has been strong all year, so he will have no problem dealing with these longer par 4’s. If he gets it all lined up, he has a chance to compete at 60-1.
The Memorial PGA Pick: Byeong Hun An (60-1, FanDuel)
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