Monday Night Football features two teams heading in opposite directions. The Houston Texans have consistently found ways to win and are getting healthier, while the Dallas Cowboys are reeling and forced to start their backup quarterback. These elements present unique betting opportunities, and we’ve highlighted the two best NFL Underdog Fantasy pick’em predictions for the game!
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Joe Mixon H/L Than 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Joe Mixon has been no stranger to the end zone this season. Outside of his matchup against the Bears, where he exited early due to an injury, he’s scored a touchdown in every game, totaling seven on the ground and one through the air.
Tonight, he’s in a prime spot to find six yet again against a struggling Cowboys defense. PFF ranks Dallas 31st in run defense, it sits dead last in defensive rush EPA, allows the most rushing touchdowns per game (1.7) and gives up an average of 4.7 yards per carry.
It’s important to recognize this specific bet, as I’m backing Mixon to score a rushing touchdown rather than a rushing or receiving one. The payout is better when you target a rushing touchdown exclusively, which has been the way he’s scored nearly all his touchdowns this season.
So let’s look to snag a slightly better payout and take advantage of the weakest aspect of the Cowboys’ defense with this wager.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Joe Mixon Higher Than 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Rico Dowdle H/L Than 53.5 Rushing Yards
Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle has solidified himself as the team’s starting back. Over his last five games — despite a blowout loss to Detroit (47-9) where he only logged five carries — Dowdle has averaged 12 carries for 57 yards.
The Texans’ defense, while generally solid, does show some vulnerability in the ground game. Pro Football Focus ranks it 20th in run defense, and it allows 4.6 yards per carry, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Over its last four games, opposing lead running backs have averaged 81.5 rushing yards.
While betting on an over for a running back on a team that’s a seven-point underdog might seem counterintuitive, this is a unique spot. Typically, you’d avoid overs on a backfield likely to abandon the run game if trailing, but the Cowboys’ situation changes the outlook. Given the uncertainty at quarterback with Cooper Rush, this could be a strong opportunity for Dowdle.
The Cowboys will need to establish a rhythm early by leaning on their ground game rather than relying on Rush to carry the offense through the air. That was an issue last week in their loss to the Eagles, and if they don’t adjust tonight, it could spell trouble again. Expect Dowdle to play a crucial role in their game plan as they aim to control the clock and ease the pressure on Rush.
Stokastic’s industry-leading NFL DFS projections have Dowdle at around 14.5 carries for 62 yards. Let’s look to take advantage of a prop numbers that’s a bit lower than what it should be and bank on him going over this mark.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Rico Dowdle Higher Than 53.5 Rushing Yards
