The NFL preseason is nearing a conclusion, and we’ll finally have meaningful football — albeit of the college variety — back on the menu this weekend. But those in need of an NFL fix need look no further. Every week, I’ll post my top picks by Tuesday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my NFL preseason Week 3 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Steelers-Falcons betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL preseason bet!
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Steelers-Falcons Pick & Preseason Betting Prediction
Steelers-Falcons Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Steelers: -200 | Falcons: +170
Steelers -4.5: -110 | Falcons +4.5: -110
Over 38.5: -110 | Under 38.5: -110
Steelers-Falcons Pick & Prediction
The line for Thursday evening’s Steelers-Falcons game, which rings in the beginning of the end of the preseason, hasn’t budged since the early week column was published. However, the numbers have moved a bit from where they opened. The Steelers were initially a 2-point favorite but have seen their advantage bid up to 4.5. The total has been bid up from 38 to 38.5 or as high as 39.5 in other spots. As of Tuesday evening, Pinnacle, a sharp book, had the total at 38.5 but the over priced at -112 (52.6%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers are not having as good of a preseason as their record suggests. At first blush, it looks like they’re rolling their opponents every week. They sit at 2-0 with a pair of double-digit wins. However, the yardage just hasn’t been there for them. The Steelers averaged 5.1 yards per play against the Buccaneers but benefited from a whopping 127 penalty yards, netting them 81, along with a breakeven turnover differential. They then averaged only 4.4 yards per play against the Bills with 67 net penalty yards and a +3 turnover margin.
Atlanta has had a similarly stagnant preseason on offense. The Falcons beat the Dolphins 19-3 in Week 1, but 13 of their points stemmed from defensive and special teams play — Dee Alford scored on a punt return and Breon Borders ran back a pick-six. Atlanta’s offense generated only 4.3 yards per play. Last week, they averaged a respectable 5.8 yards per play with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke both seeing action, along with skill-position players like Drake London and Bijan Robinson, but who knows how much run they’ll get this time.
It’s unclear which units will see action in Steelers-Falcons this week, but regardless of who takes the field, give me the under. This total should be slightly lower given the tepid offensive production we’ve seen out of both sides. The Steelers have relied on big plays and penalty yards. The Falcons have needed similar splash plays to get on the board as well. Meanwhile, both teams have pitched solid games on defense: the Steelers have allowed only 5.3 yards per play, while the Falcons have allowed just 5.1.
Let’s play the under 38.5 before it disappears. The Steelers have shown plenty of scoring potential in the preseason, but they haven’t picked up the yards necessary to back that up. Likewise, the Falcons did nothing offensively in Week 1 and may not need to give the starters who carried them over the top in Week 2 again before the regular season begins. Both Atlanta and Pittsburgh have gotten lucky, so it makes sense to fade them both and root for regression to the mean.
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Steelers-Falcons NFL Preseason Pick: Under 38.5 -110 at FanDuel
