The Green Bay Packers kept their playoff hopes alive with a big-time upset over the Kansas City Chiefs last week, so they’ll look to keep things rolling against OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Packers-Giants Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Monday
Monday Night Football Odds
Odds via bet365
Packers: -270 | Giants: +220
Packers -6: -110 | Giants +6: -110
Over 37: -110 | Under 37: -110
Time: Monday, Dec. 11 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Packers-Giants Player Prop Pick
Kayvon Thibodeaux Prop O/U 0.5 Sacks
I’m getting more than a little weird with my first NFL player prop pick for Monday’s Packers-Giants game. Instead of playing an offensive prop, we’re targeting a defensive player — and we’re buying an under on it as well.
rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, for as disruptive as he has been in recent weeks, is in a big-time regression spot. Thibodeaux has generated just 26 pressures (18th) for 11 sacks (9th). No player with fewer pressures generated has more sacks.
The Green Bay Packers have one of the best-performing offensive lines in football, especially at both tackle spots, which bodes poorly for an edge rusher like Thibodeaux. Left tackle Rasheed Walker ranks third among tackles in -rush win rate (94%). Right tackle Zach Tom ranks 16th (90%). As a unit, Green Bay’s offensive line ranks an impressive second in the metric (69%).
With two of Thibodeaux’s teammates in the trenches, Dexter Lawrence and A’Shawn Robinson, listed as questionable, it could be double-team city for him tonight. If the Giants opt to move Thibodeaux around the line and rush him up the middle, center Josh Myers, who ranks eighth among all interior offensive linemen in -block win rate (96%), is there to help out one of the guards.
Packers-Giants Player Prop Pick: Kayvon Thibodeaux Under 0.5 Sacks -130 at Hard Rock
Packers-Giants Model Player Prop
Jordan Love O/U 10.5 Rushing Yards
Alright, that’s my pick — let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s model wants action on. It recommends targeting Jordan Love on the rushing yardage markets because of an odds disparity between FanDuel Sportsbook and the rest of the market. You’ll find the under 10.5 priced at -113 (53%) on FanDuel but the 9.5 is priced at -115 (53.5%) or worse elsewhere. That’s more than enough value to justify backing the under.
How does the model work? identify +EV wagers. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at Greg Ehrenberg’s betting results!
The model wants action on Love because the true odds are -121 (54.8%), which means we’re getting enough positive expected value on the -113 for a bettor with a bankroll of $1,000 to wager $16. If you haven’t signed up for NFL betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” to take 20% off!
Packers-Giants Player Prop Pick: Jordan Love Under 10.5 Rushing Yards -110 at FanDuel
Packers-Giants Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
With running back Aaron Jones not expected to play on Monday night, AJ Dillon should dominate Green Bay’s backfield in touches near the red zone. Dillon has toted the rock inside the 20-yard line a team-high 27 times this year. He has also racked up 14 carries inside the 10 and five inside the five.
Those 27 red-zone rushing plays have turned into a singular rushing score, but with the Packers not trusting reserves Emanuel Wilson (one red-zone carry) or Patrick Taylor (two red-zone carries) much near the goal line, Dillon should be fine competition-wise.
Dillon should look more efficient tonight for multiple reasons. For one, New York’s run defense is awful. The Giants have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game to running backs (116.7) and the fourth-most rushing touchdowns per game to them (1).
New York’s run defense could be even worse than usual tonight. Interior defensive linemen Dexter Lawrence and A’Shawn Robinson are both questionable with hamstring injuries. One of their teammates, Leonard Williams, was dealt at the deadline despite a solid season.
Most importantly, the Green Bay offense should get several red-zone scoring opportunities. New York’s opponents have averaged 3.5 red-zone scoring attempts per game, which ranks fifth-worst. Green Bay’s offense has also averaged 3.5 red-zone scoring attempts per game, which ranks ninth. Dillon clocks in at odds of +130 to find paydirt on FanDuel but is only +109 to do so on Pinnacle.
Packers-Giants Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet:
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