The NFL has an action-packed card on tap for Week 7. However, six teams are on a bye: the Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, New York Jets and Tennessee Titans. So how are we attacking the slate? I’m big on the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, so let’s work from there as a starting point. Here are the best confidence pool picks for NFL Week 7! If you’re looking for the best NFL bets today, check out OddsShopper’s model!
NFL Week 7 Confidence Pool Picks
Teams with higher point-value assignments come first. Winners are in bold, upsets are marked with three asterisks (***).
San Francisco 49ers (-290) at Minnesota Vikings
Sure, the Bills might be bigger favorites this week. I don’t care. We’ve got a chance to back one of the NFL’s most efficient offenses against primetime Kirk Cousins. Did you know that Cousins is 2-10 as a starter on Mondays? Not great, Bob. The 49ers would probably be favored by a larger margin if Jake Moody’s field goal had gone through the uprights last week.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-290)
The Arizona Cardinals have given some teams a scare this season, but with James Conner now on injured reserve, their already thin offense loses a key reason for its production. Quarterback Josh Dobbs has been fun to watch, but that hasn’t helped the Cardinals rank above the league average in almost any expected points added (EPA) metrics. The Seahawks are above average in all but EPA allowed per dropback. Trust them to get it done on Sunday.
Buffalo Bills (-425) at New England Patriots
The New England Patriots are terrible, but as we all saw last week, Josh Allen loves to play bad teams close. The New York Giants only lost last week because of a questionable no-call in the end zone. While I’m generally high on Buffalo, the Bills have a lengthy list of big-name contributors who are hurt. Does Bill Belichick still have some black magic left in his sleeveless hoodie? Probably not, but I know better than to slot Buffalo in at the top spot.
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Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-258)
The Kansas City Chiefs aren’t coming off a bye, but they do get some extra rest relative to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs last played on Thursday; the Chargers last played on Monday. Kansas City has gone 24-9 with a rest advantage since Andy Reid’s arrival in 2016. They are 9-3 with a rest advantage since 2021 as well. Patrick Mahomes and company should feast against a poorly rested, struggling secondary.
Cleveland Browns (-155) at Indianapolis Colts
The Cleveland Browns may have the best defense in a generation. It certainly looks that way after six weeks. They’ll get to tee off against a shaky Indianapolis Colts offensive line that ranks 21st in -block win rate (51%), which could cause problems for backup quarterback Gardner Minshew II. There are some unanswered questions surrounding Cleveland’s offense, but I’m trusting Kevin Stefanski to find something that works in Indy this weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (-130)
The New Orleans Saints will host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday night. The moneyline odds have been steadily moving in their favor all throughout the week. Despite quarterback Trevor Lawrence sounding confident about playing, the Jaguars are down one starting offensive lineman and could be down another. If Lawrence’s mobility is limited or the Jags have to put in a backup, the Saints should stifle their offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams (-166)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are annoying. Head coach Mike Tomlin always finds a way to get this team to .500, which, to be honest, might not be a good thing — that’s why they’re stuck with quarterback Kenny Pickett and not, say, literally anyone else. Not getting top-10 picks will have consequences for your franchise eventually. The Steelers may have a plucky defense, but it won’t be enough to get a road win over Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
Green Bay Packers (-115) at Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos are pulling the plug. They have already shipped off two rushers, Randy Gregory and Frank Clark. Their rush ranks an embarrassing 31st in -rush win rate (32%), so expect Jordan Love to cook. I don’t get why the Packers aren’t favored by a wider margin. I’m a little bit worried about Aaron Jones, but I trust Green Bay following their bye week.
Washington Commanders (-148) at New York Giants
I would have the Commanders higher if quarterback Sam Howell weren’t taking so many sacks. The dude needs to learn to get rid of the football. Howell’s struggles already cost the Commanders a winnable game against the also-bad Chicago Bears. The Giants are awful and have one of worst offensive lines I have ever seen (mostly because of injuries — no offense, Andrew Thomas), but can we really trust the Commanders more than this? I don’t think so.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-142)
I don’t know what to think about this game. The Atlanta Falcons have been plucky, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been pluckier. Tampa Bay had the worst odds of winning the NFC South in the preseason, and now they’re the runner-up to New Orleans in most spots. The Buccaneers have the 10th-best ing offense by EPA per dropback, and they should get the best of a Falcons team ranked 24th in EPA allowed per dropback.
Las Vegas Raiders (-155) at Chicago Bears***
I do not like the Las Vegas Raiders. Unfortunately, I also do not like the Chicago Bears. I’m still backing Chicago here because of the uncertainty surrounding quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and Las Vegas’ terrible rushing defense. The Raiders rank 28th in EPA allowed per rush. Although the Bears don’t have many healthy options at running back, whoever is available should cook on the ground.
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-155)
This game should be closer to a pick’em. The Baltimore Ravens are great and own one of the NFL’s most efficient defenses, but so do the Detroit Lions. Both offenses are slow-paced and run-heavy, but with running back David Montgomery, I expect to see more of Detroit’s ing offense, which ranks fifth in EPA per dropback. I don’t think it’ll be enough to get the job done for Detroit, but I’m not confident enough in either side to put this game any higher.
Miami Dolphins*** at Philadelphia Eagles (-135)
Sunday Night Football features a super-interesting matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the injury-riddled Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles could be without multiple key pieces in the secondary, which bodes poorly against the NFL’s second-best ing offense in EPA per dropback. Tua Tagovailoa should find Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle downfield for plenty of chunk plays, and although I don’t have much faith in Miami’s defense, Philadelphia’s red-zone offense could bail them out enough for the Dolphins to win.
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