Week 3 of the confidence pool is a major one! The season is already two weeks in, but some teams have revealed themselves as not serious about winning anything. There are some surprise teams on a positive note, including inside the 2-0 crew, as squads begin to form their identities for the rest of the season. It’s still too early to put any major upsets higher on your confidence list, as the best strategy is dropping them to the bottom. If there’s a heavy favorite that might lose, then best to drop them to the mid-range in the event the upset happens. Here are the NFL Week 3 confidence pool picks.
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NFL Week 3 Confidence Pool Picks
Winners are in bold, upsets are marked with **
16. Kansas City Chiefs (-650) vs. Chicago Bears
This should be everyone’s top play this week. The Chiefs split at 1-1 makes them more dangerous in a month already dominated by Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. The Bears are in a ton of trouble. Their quarterback can’t throw, the coach can’t coach, and they can’t win games. This would be the biggest regular season upset in the NFL in years. It’s not happening. Chicago may trade or release Justin Fields by the half – or he simply walks out of the stadium in disgust.
15. San Francisco 49ers (-550) vs. New York Giants
The Giants needed a miraculous, historic comeback to save their season against the Arizona Cardinals. Meanwhile, Kyle Shanahan’s only concern is whether he should be playing his backup running back more in blowouts. It’s a short week in this wonky league, so anything can happen, but don’t worry about any outright victory from the G-Men.
14. Miami Dolphins (-278) vs. Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson is just 4-11 straight up against the spread in road games played in the first three weeks of the season. Just because they are 0-2 doesn’t mean they have to win anything. Wilson was this poor early on the road with better teams and a more seasoned coach (meaning this is Sean Payton’s first go around with Wilson). What exactly is going to change here against a Miami team that’s rolling? The only injury that would negatively impact this result for Miami would be to their quarterback – and he’s fine.
13. Baltimore Ravens (-340) vs. Indianapolis Colts
There will be upsets this week in the National Football League, but not here, not in Baltimore. While the Colts’ win last week looked gutsy, they beat a banged-up rookie quarterback. That changes against Lamar Jackson despite him having some missing pieces around him. Anthony Richardson should take note, as Jackson will show the Colts defense and the rest of the league how to win a game on his own. Indianapolis isn’t blowing out Baltimore on the road, so if they do win, it will be a close game. Which of the two quarterbacks do you trust with the ball in his hands in the final drive of the game? Take the Ravens here.
12. Philadelphia Eagles (-218) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We are bying a few more heavy favorites to throw this play in the mix. While the Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield may have found some early magic, the Eagles have “struggled” their way to a 2-0 record beating up on bad teams. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense can run over anyone and should face a tougher matchup than last week’s Vikings front, so expect the ing game to return. Mayfield is going to have to make more plays than Hurts, that’s the only way Tampa Bay will win this game. That’s just not going to happen against an Eagles quarterback looking to still improve on the first two weeks.
11. Cleveland Browns (-170) vs. Tennessee Titans**
This one is easy and a rulebreaker in the process. Not often a dog winning outright would be this high on the list, but this is off. Cleveland is on a short week after watching its best player suffer a gruesome, on-field injury. Nick Chubb may be the only non-quarterback to impact lines and betting like a top-5 quarterback. Deshaun Watson is certainly not that, so the Browns will take a massive hit in their inconsistent offense. The Titans defense is blah, but their run defense is better than anything Cleveland has seen. Watson will be turned into a one-dimensional er early in this game, allowing for the Titans and Mike Vrabel’s defense to tee off at will.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (-400) vs. Houston Texans
The Jaguars are clearly the better team and have a healthy quarterback. They have a better coach and skilled players on offense. Houston has given some fits to Doug Pederson and his Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence too. The Texans may have lost both games so far, but their production in those games was better than both opponents’. They will provide a fight here and cover anything more than a field goal. As for Lawrence, he’s yet to pay off as a home favorite against the spread, going 0-4. He’s 1-3 straight up in that role, so we just drop the Jaguars here.
9. Detroit Lions (-166) vs. Atlanta Falcons**
Atlanta wants to run, Detroit wants to move move move. This should be a great game with different approaches to offense, but both can still get up and down the field. This is another upset moved up the list because of the matchup. Detroit is just 1-5 straight up against the spread against the NFC South at home. Meanwhile, the 2-0 Falcons find themselves 6-1 against the spread in the first of two straight road games. Arthur Smith carries a team trend (not all him) of 5-1 against the spread in any road game played Week 3 of the season. The Falcons can slow this down and keep their revamped defense aggressive against Jared Goff and the Lions.
8. Seattle Seahawks (-250) vs. Carolina Panthers
If only Bryce Young could figure this thing out. The Panthers truly aren’t as bad as their 0-2 record would indicate, but they are what their record states. It’s a tough hole to climb out of taking on Seattle on a short week. The Seahawks have some inconsistencies, but when that offense is cooking, there won’t be much the Panthers can do to stop them. Geno Smith can move the ball fast and efficiently at times and is just better right now than his counterpart in Young. A couple of injury concerns for the Panthers on defense will prevent this from any upset.
7. Buffalo Bills (-270) at Washington Commanders
Yes, the Bills are this far down on the list. This week’s opponent is no joke. The Commanders have cleaned up a lot on offense and drama overall. Ron Rivera is focused on defense, and Sam Howell has a smart mind on offense to help. Washington is still not as talented as the Bills, but some injuries for Buffalo can help negate those concerns. Even though Josh Allen is superior to Howell, the latter hasn’t shown signs of major implosions – like Allen. Buffalo has too much self-destruction to fully count on them to knock off a good underdog in the Commanders.
6. New England Patriots (-135) at New York Jets
The Patriots get a familiar face this week, and nothing could be better. At 0-2, things are far from over for New England, but they are certainly getting that way. It was over for the Jets once Aaron Rodgers went down, so now Zach Wilson will try to do something he has yet to do in his career: Beat the patriots. That’s truly what this game boils down to — one of the best defensive minds of all time taking on a career backup quarterback. It simply doesn’t matter what you’ve seen from Mac Jones or the Jets defense, neither will be more impactful than the poor play from Wilson.
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