Welcome to the 2023 NFL Confidence Picks! We return after launching this last year with 15 games on the Sunday and Monday Night slate. The biggest thing is lowering points for any upsets as you don’t gain any massive edge – at least not early in contests – by attributing higher points to dogs. The idea is that if a lot of people lose on a heavy favorite, you gain more with their loss by keeping dogs lighter. As the crowd begins to thin, adding more points to upsets becomes a better strategy. Here are the best NFL Week 1 Confidence Pool Picks!
NFL Week 1 Confidence Pool Picks
15.) Baltimore Ravens (-435) vs Houston Texans
John Harbaugh is angry. His preseason winning streak was snapped, and he’s bound to take it out on the lowly Houston Texans. There’s also the matter of Lamar Jackson returning healthy and leading a Ravens offense with JK Dobbins ready to carry the workload. Houston has improved, but not “beat Baltimore on the road in Week 1” improved.
14.) Washington Commanders (-300) vs Arizona Cardinals
Jonathan Gannon can’t seem to keep his mouth shut but it doesn’t seem to be motivating anyone. The Cardinals are without Kyler Murray and rid themselves of the only competent backup QB on the team. Arizona has no shot against a revamped Washington offense led primarily by Eric Bieniemy. If there’s anyone with an offensive scheme that can plan open Jahan Dotson, it’s the former Chiefs OC. New QB and injured star WR aside, Washington won’t lose this one at home.
13.) Minnesota Vikings (-230) vs Tampa Bay Bucs
The Vikings saw some major changes on both sides of the ball and might be primed for an upset even with their home opener. The problem is the Bucs coaching staff is so bad that taking any risk under a TD to win makes no sense, so putting them in upset mode for a confidence pool would be insane. Kirk Cousins is still throwing to Justin Jefferson and Brian Flores is here to upgrade the defense. Tampa stinks out loud.
12.) Jacksonville Jaguars (-205) vs Indianapolis Colts
Road dogs taking on a division foe that made the playoffs can be sneaky in Week 1. Overall, dogs will tend to bark a little louder in the opening week of the season, but there’s just too many new faces on the Colts in important positions to establish trust. Doug Pederson is a better coach than unproved Shane Steichen, as is Trevor Lawrence to rookie Anthony Richardson. Indy will fight and keep this one close, but they just don’t have enough to win on the road.
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (-125) at Cleveland Browns
It’s hard to pick against Cleveland in this spot but Joe Burrow is healthy and paid. The Bengals somehow seem to be flying under the radar and that only helps this team. Cleveland improved on defense, especially the coaching staff, but Cincy has too much firepower in the ing game, balanced by Joe Mixon. This may be close due to a division matchup, but the Bengals are the better team.
10.) Seattle Seahawks (-196) vs Los Angeles Rams
This line under 2-1 feels a little off. Seattle caught fire last year against a Rams team that fell off the face of the earth, and it’s still sitting under -200 for the game. The Rams might look back to normal, but they’ve lost too many players – the latest being Cooper Kupp. Even with Kupp on the field, it’s a struggle for Matthew Stafford and this Rams team to keep up with anyone. Seattle opens up at home against a division foe, except the Rams don’t look anything like what Pete Carroll is used to seeing.
9.) Philadelphia Eagles (-190) at New England Patriots
Super Bowl losers do not fare well in this position. Granted, the Chiefs proved opposite a couple of strong trends for Patrick Mahomes and SB winners, but ultimately any team coming off a Super Bowl loss is an automatic fade in Week 1. The problem is Jalen Hurts is so dynamic that he can outplay trends. Certain QBs in the NFL can take over games with their legs and arms, making them truly above any trends. Think Neo stopping bullets. The outlier is of course Bill Belichick who is good enough to keep trends alive and burning.
8.) Denver Broncos (-158) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The biggest question here is whether Sean Payton can whisper the same sweet nothings in Russell Wilson’s ear as he did Drew Brees. Recovering Wilson to a near-MVP level would change a lot for Denver this season. The good news is they open against a Raiders team not expected to make any noise out west. The bad news for Denver is they are running out of wideouts, suffering injuries elsewhere too. Jimmy Garoppolo might see an immense amount of pressure from the opening snap – Denver will try and keep their defenders and the crowd on his back.
7.) Los Angeles Chargers (-154) vs. Miami Dolphins
This is a great spot for the home favorite taking on a foe who made the playoffs last year. Miami should have little issue with Jaylen Waddle playing through a minor injury and are healthy with Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill in full effect. The Chargers have one of the best rosters in the league on paper, yet people are hesitant to back them due to many coaching blunders. Justin Herbert may have his best crew yet around him. No team has scored more points and given up more than the Chargers since Herbert was drafted. A shootout bodes well for L.A.
6.) Buffalo Bills (-135) at New York Jets
Limited pressure on Aaron Rodgers is going to be the Bills undoing. This Monday Night extravaganza is going to feature Rodgers a ton on the broadcast no matter what’s going on, but the real payout will be watching him pull off the upset. The Bills went through a long season last year, both on and off the field. They come back but are not fully healthy, losing Von Miller for this one hurts. The Jets head coach can finally just focus on defense while turning his back on Rodgers and the offense, something Rober Saleh has been unable to do with inferior talent.
5.) San Francisco 49ers (-130) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Kyle Shanahan is 14-30 SU without Jimmy G. That run by Brock Purdy has yet to be established as anything more than late season lightning in a bottle. Now he and a coach that loses 68% of these games are charged with doing that, on the road, all while coming back from a massive injury. It doesn’t matter what else is going on with the Niners. Mike Tomlin is in heavy trust mode for the upset as a home dog in a season opener. Their offense is improved and they will have a way to keep this low-scoring and close until the end.
4.) Chicago Bears (-117) vs. Green Bay Packers
Justin Fields doesn’t win many games in the NFL. Of the five wins under his belt, two were against winless teams and another against Trey Lance. While Fields isn’t the sole reason why his team lost games, it’s another example of why betting on a favorite with a losing record is a losing strategy. From TV to Twitter, everyone has been telling Jordan Love that he stinks and has no shot to win games. That’s serious motivation that Fields just doesn’t have. The coaching staff is better in Green Bay and the defense should be fun to watch.
3.) New Orleans Saints (-148) vs Tennessee Titans
Nobody should feel good about laying points or moneyline juice on the Derek Carr & Dennis Allen tandem. Both of these guys are just awful against the spread as favorites, and should be avoided at all cost. The Titans added one of the better wideouts in the game in Deandre Hopkins – despite being on the way down, but good enough to help Ryan Tannehill and Derek Henry run to daylight.
2.) Dallas Cowboys (-170) at New York Giants
New York is looking to prove last year was far from any fluke by beating a division opponent at home. Dallas had a rough one last year, mainly because Dak Prescott kept throwing interceptions. The world expects that to change from last year because there’s no way he can throw that many while still missing at least five games, but with more action on the field comes more risk. The Cowboys wont lose this game because Prescott is pick happy, although that won’t help Dallas, rather Daniel Jones becoming more comfortable as a dual threat in Brian Daboll’s offense. The Giants are in a fantastic betting spot against the spread and should win this game outright.
1.) Atlanta Falcons (-180) vs Carolina Panthers
Arthur Smith plays his biggest role as a game planner ahead of Week 1. With an extended period of time, he can devise schemes for Bijan Robinson and the rest of his running back crew. This is a tighter moneyline, so the spread can come into play – pay attention if you are backing Atlanta. Smith was 0-3 against the spread as a home favorite in year one at Atlanta, 1-3-1 against the spread in the same position last year. That includes being a pick. Falcons fans that one cover, a meaningless Week 17 bout last year. This has upset written all over it.
