It’s NFL playoff time, and we’re rolling out some Portfolio EV for the Wild Card round.
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NFL Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions: Wild Card Weekend
Nelson Agholor Lower Than 22.5 Receiving Yards
This one is a little tricky given the Ravens will be without their No. 1 receiver in Zay Flowers. It would stand to reason other catchers would assume the load — and for many of them, that is what we are projecting. Agholor, however, is not one of those receivers.
Stokastic’s NFL Stat Projections place Agholor fourth among Ravens in projected receiving yards on Saturday, the primary reason being the lack of volume. Sure, Agholor can easily top 22.5 yards with one catch — he did so four times this year. But even with Flowers out, one or two targets is a pretty safe estimate for Agholor.
Also, Agholor is coming back from three straight inactive weeks, and he had only seven total targets from Week 9 on. We’ll go lower than 22.5 yards and take the 57% expected win rate.
John Metchie III Higher Than 19.5 Receiving Yards
Enough of the negativity; we’ll cap off the entry with a couple higher than receiving yard plays.
Metchie stepped up after Tank Dell went down, beating this 19.5-yard projection in both games since and seeing 12 total targets. Now, Houston is getting a tough Chargers defense that allowed fewer points than any team in the league, so C.J. Stroud may run into some issues. Plus, like Agholor, Metchie is fourth in receiving yard projection on his team.
That said, he still projects for over 20 yards and is basically even with Joe Mixon, so we expect Stroud to look Metchie’s way enough for him to get to 20. This play has a 56% chance of hitting right now, making it 2.5% +EV on its own.
Austin Ekeler Higher Than 16.5 Receiving Yards
We have one more receiving play here, and it’s a simple one. This will be Jayden Daniels‘ first career postseason game, and we all understand that young quarterbacks like their safety blankets. As far as running backs go, few have been safer as a receiving option over the years than Ekeler.
Despite him getting considerably less action than Brian Robinson Jr., Ekeler had 41 targets this season, averaging about 3.5 per game for 30-ish yards. Now, we are projecting him slightly under three targets, but it’s still leading to 18.9 yards receiving, comfortably higher than the 16.5 mark. This higher play gives the whole Underdog entry a nice 17% chance of winning as a 6x Standard play, and it’s strong at 7% +EV.
