The Tennessee Titans will look to keep their slim postseason hopes alive in Nashville on Sunday. They’ll host the Houston Texans, and the Texans won’t have rookie sensation C.J. Stroud under center. The market favors Tennessee, and as a result, I’m picking the over on a Derrick Henry player prop bet for Sunday’s Texans-Titans game. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our NFL betting model’s picks!
NFL Texans-Titans Player Prop: Best Derrick Henry Bet
Texans-Titans Odds
Odds via bet365
Texans: +145 | Titans: -170
Texans +3: -110 | Titans -3: -110
Over 37: -110 | Under 37: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 17 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: OddsShopper’s Model
Derrick Henry Player Prop Bet
The Tennessee Titans will host the Houston Texans this weekend. Although the Texans were trading as road favorites on the lookahead markets, injuries to superstar rookies C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. now have them trading as underdogs. With Tennessee favored, Derrick Henry stands out as a likely high-volume option.
OddsShopper’s model wants some action on Henry in this spot. Henry is averaging exactly 16.5 rushing attempts per game this year, but his splits make this one stand out. Henry averages 20 rushing attempts per game at home and 20.8 rushing attempts per game in wins. Correlation may not equal causation, but some books just haven’t adjusted enough for Tennessee’s advantage in this spot.
You’ll find Henry to record over 16.5 rushing attempts priced at only -105 on ESPNBet but at -120 or worse everywhere else. Some books, like FanDuel and bet365, even have the over 17.5 at shorter odds. OddsShopper’s model generates a fair market price, called true odds, by indexing the odds across the market, adjusting for book sharpness, hold and other factors, and we’ve got a line of -117 for this prop.
With the true odds of this prop trading at -117, OddsShopper’s model calculates that a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll should wager $25 on the -105 available at ESPNBet. Make sure to take advantage of the edge on this prop before it disappears — I also added the over 18.5 for odds of +185 to my betting card. If you’re interested in g up for OddsShopper , use code “ISIROIS” at checkout to take 20% off.
Best NFL Texans-Titans Player Prop Bet: Derrick Henry Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts -105 at ESPNBet
