The Miami Dolphins will run quite the gauntlet as the postseason approaches — they’ll play the Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills before the Wild Card round. But even with the No. 1 seed on the line, NFL betting model’s picks! Want access to all of the model’s picks? Use promo code “GIFT” to take 33% off at checkout.
NFL Cowboys-Dolphins Player Prop: Best Raheem Mostert Bet
Cowboys-Dolphins Odds
Odds via bet365
Cowboys: +110 | Dolphins: -130
Cowboys +1.5: -105 | Dolphins -1.5: -115
Over 49.5: -110 | Under 49.5: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 24 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Expert: OddsShopper’s Model
Raheem Mostert Player Prop Bet
In one of the best games of the week, the Miami Dolphins will host the Dallas Cowboys. Both teams are in the mix for divisional titles, although Miami has far more of an edge than Dallas does. Likewise, both squads have realistic shots at the first overall seed in their conferences.
Miami’s starting running back, Raheem Mostert, has been a monster this year. The veteran back has racked up a career (and NFL)-high 18 rushing scores to go with another two through the air. Still, OddsShopper’s model recommends fading him come Sunday — at least on the receiving yardage markets.
Mostert is averaging 1.7 receptions and 12.2 receiving yards per game. He now takes on a Dallas Cowboys defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game to the position (26.4). But OddsShopper’s model doesn’t care about stats or matchups — it just cares about the market, and the market also points to value on the under in this spot.
You’ll find Mostert priced at odds of -143 (58.9%) to stay under 7.5 receiving yards at Pinnacle, a sharp book. You can add an extra three yards onto that number for odds of -160 (61.5%) at Fanatics and PointsBet, which is worse than the true odds of -177 (63.9%) according to the model. That number is generated by indexing the odds across the market and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
