The NFL playoffs are well underway. These are some of my favorite games to bet on because of the surplus of data we have at our disposal. While betting on early season games can be difficult because your best data points bake in a boatload of variance, things start to stabilize late in the year, which is when my NFL betting model is at its best. Let’s dive into how my NFL betting model is handicapping the 2024 Divisional Round before I identify my top early NFL picks. Take a look at additional expert picks!
My model is built using +EV bets for those teams. If you wagered $100 on those six picks, you would’ve profited $226 despite the $200 loss courtesy of the Cowboys.
NFL Betting Model Early Picks & Predictions for the Divisional Round
Early NFL Picks: Handicapping the 2024 NFL Divisional Playoff Round
Texans-Ravens Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Texans: +340 | Ravens: -450
Texans +9.5 | Ravens -9.5
Odds via NFL Betting Model
Texans: +400 | Ravens: -400
Texans +12 | Ravens -12
Texans-Ravens Prediction
The model loves the Baltimore Ravens in this spot. While it finds the moneyline to be efficiently priced, it would favor the Ravens by an additional three points. The edge largely comes down to the split between these rushing offenses and ing defenses. Lamar Jackson and C.J. Stroud are near-equals in the model’s eyes — at least when it comes to dropbacks.
The model has Baltimore’s rushing offense ranked second (+0.01 EPA/play), far ahead of 26th-ranked Houston (-0.16). Despite solid showings down the stretch from Devin Singletary, Houston’s poor ranking makes sense — the team’s offensive line ranks a dismal 25th in run-block win rate (70%). Dameon Pierce ranks last among all running backs in yards before per attempt (1.2). Meanwhile, Baltimore’s line ranks fifth (72%). That may not be a huge disparity, but there is only a 10% gap between the top-ranked Steelers and the bottom-ranked Buccaneers.
Baltimore’s ing defense also ranks second (-1.4 EPA allowed/play), also far ahead of 20th-ranked Houston (+0.05). The problems within Houston’s secondary were laid bare early against the Cleveland Browns last week, as Joe Flacco was cutting the unit up early before a pair of costly pick-sixes. Both ing offenses may have to contend with Mother Nature to a degree — it’s expected to snow in Baltimore on Friday, and double-digit wind gusts are expected on Saturday, so the ing defenses should get some help.
Packers-49ers Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Packers: +350 | 49ers: -450
Packers +9.5 | 49ers -9.5
Odds via NFL Betting Model
Packers: +450 | 49ers: -450
Packers +12.5 | 49ers -12.5
Packers-49ers Prediction
Just as the model favors the No. 1 Baltimore Ravens, it also favors the No. 1 San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are the model’s largest favorite of the week, owning outright odds of 81% to win Sunday’s home game versus the Green Bay Packers. San Francisco’s advantage stems from the major disparity between these offenses and ing defenses.
The model is in love with Kyle Shanahan’s offense, with the 49ers ranked first in both ing offense (+0.3 EPA/play) and rushing offense (+0.03). The Packers aren’t far behind in the rankings, as they clock in at fifth (+0.19) and 10th (-0.05), respectively, so the 49ers’ advantage stems more from the size of their margin over the Packers. However, it’s worth noting that Green Bay did not have Aaron Jones for the bulk of the season, and having him fresh late in the year means the model could be underrating the team’s rushing offense.
San Francisco also has a major advantage on defense — at least against the . The 49ers’ ing defense ranks sixth (-0.06 EPA allowed/play), far ahead of the 23rd-ranked Packers (+0.07 EPA allowed/play). Although the Green Bay secondary looked incredible against the Cowboys last Sunday, some regression is probably in order. Neither team has fared well against the run, as San Francisco ranks 26th (-0.04 EPA allowed/play) while Green Bay ranks 21st (-0.08). Rushing defenses generally aren’t that valuable (only the Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks allowed more than 0 EPA per rushing play this year), but the 49ers could be vulnerable to another dominant performance from Jones — especially if the rain expected on Friday and Sunday spills over into Saturday.
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Buccaneers-Lions Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Buccaneers: +220 | Lions: -275
Buccaneers +6.5 | Lions -6.5
Odds via NFL Betting Model
Buccaneers: +220 | Lions: -220
Buccaneers +6.5 | Lions -6.5
Buccaneers-Lions Prediction
Last week, the model loved the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and liked the Detroit Lions (it favored them by an extra 0.4 points — not enough for me to jump on, but enough to note). This week, it finds the current market prices quite efficient for both sides. Detroit’s massive edge on the ground and home-field advantage lead the model to favor the Lions by 6.5.
This year’s Buccaneers have completely punted on the running game. Their rushing offense ranks a brutal 27th (-0.17 EPA/play), which largely stems from terrible offensive line play, as their unit ranks 32nd in run-block win rate (67%). Their running back, Rachaad White, ranks only 29th of 48 eligible running backs in yards before per carry (2.2) and an even worse 42nd in yards after per carry (1.4). Meanwhile, Detroit’s rushing offense ranks sixth (+0.01). Both teams have solid rushing defenses, which means the Buccaneers will probably need to lean on Baker Mayfield and the ing game this week.
It’s worth noting that neither team has a good ing defense. The Lions’ unit ranks a dreadful 25th (+0.08 EPA allowed/play) while the Buccaneers’ unit ranks 22nd (+0.07 EPA allowed/play). That should create plenty of openings for Mayfield and Jared Goff to exploit, but the model doesn’t see much of a disparity between them or these ing offenses. This game could turn into a shootout, but with the total trading at 48.5, that’s to be expected.
Chiefs-Bills Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Chiefs: +120 | Bills: -145
Chiefs +3 | Bills -3
Odds via NFL Betting Model
Chiefs: +185 | Bills: -185
Chiefs +5.5 | Bills -5.5
Chiefs-Bills Prediction
The model marginally favored the Kansas City Chiefs but not relative to the market last week. It favored the Buffalo Bills by the closing number (10) as well. This week, the model remains skeptical of the Chiefs, largely because of a significant split between Buffalo and Kansas City’s offenses. The Bills outrank the Chiefs in all key metrics except ing defense.
It should come as no surprise that Buffalo has an advantage on offense. Most importantly, the Bills rank a dominant fourth in ing offense (+0.16 EPA/play), giving them a decent leg up — nearly double, in fact — over the 12th-ranked Chiefs (+0.08). The Bills also have an advantage on the ground, as their rushing unit ranks third (+0.01), even further ahead of the 18th-ranked Chiefs (-0.11). The issues likely stem from one of two factors, whether it’s the Chiefs’ poor offensive tackle play — they lead in -block win rate but largely because of their interior offensive linemen, while the Bills rank sixth — or their struggling -catchers, who have totaled 41 drops on the year.
The Chiefs do have an advantage in one spot: ing defense. Kansas City’s unit ranks third (-0.1) while Buffalo’s ranks seventh (-0.04). That isn’t a massive disparity, especially since the Chiefs at a much higher clip than the Bills do (61% to 54%), but it’s a meaningful one to note. Also, unlike last week’s game, Sunday’s forecast for Buffalo calls for clear skies and no precipitation, with only possible 15 mph winds left to derail both ing offenses.
2024 Early NFL Divisional Round Model Betting Picks
So how am I implementing the model’s insight into my betting card? I’m tackling this week’s action in a handful of different ways. You could follow the simple approach laid out earlier in the article by placing one-unit wagers on Baltimore, Buffalo and San Francisco all to cover (and Buffalo to win), but a few other bets are more appealing to me.
I placed a six-point teaser on the Ravens and 49ers at DraftKings, backing them both to cover the 3.5, for odds of -111. The model has both teams winning by double digits, and even though a bye week is often thought of as a disadvantage due to too much time off when you get the divisional round, both No. 1 seeds won by at least seven points last year. Since 2017-18, 14 of 18 teams coming off a bye won by at least four points, and since 2020-21 (when the Super Wild Card format was adopted), four of six teams coming off a bye won by at least four.
Early NFL Divisional Round Pick #1: Ravens -3.5/49ers -3.5 -111 at DraftKings
As far as the Chiefs-Bills game goes, it’s always tough to handicap Buffalo due to their frequent self-inflicted wounds. Buffalo’s 21-14 win over Miami to clinch the AFC East is the perfect illustration: the Bills punted just once in nine possessions, but they also scored on only two of them. Four drives ended on turnovers (two interceptions, one fumble, one turnover on downs). One drive immediately before halftime ended with the ball at Miami’s two-yard line as time expired. Buffalo’s final drive was a series of kneel-downs to run out the clock.
Ultimately, Buffalo should win against the Chiefs. Buffalo also should’ve won against the Jets in Week 1, the Patriots in Week 7, the Broncos in Week 10 and the Eagles in Week 12. The Bills didn’t win those games because of turnovers, questionable coaching decisions and missed field goals.
With two of the NFL’s premier ing defenses on the field at Highmark Stadium this Sunday, I’m inclined to bet the under. Despite both teams’ impressive quarterbacks, the Bills are 11-7 to the under this year, while the Chiefs are an NFL-best 13-5. I’m teasing the spread down from Buffalo -3 to Buffalo +3.5 and the total up from 45.5 to 50.5 at BetMGM. Their spread/total parlays have this wager priced at +120, but a same-game parlay of the same lines will cost you +115. The same wager will cost you +100 at DraftKings and +110 at FanDuel.
Early NFL Divisional Round Pick #2: Buffalo +3.5/Under 50.5 +120 at BetMGM
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