This year’s NFL conference championship games raise plenty of true football questions. Can Baltimore’s run-heavy offense and efficient defense topple one of the game’s best quarterbacks? Can Detroit’s hard-nosed rushing attack beat a San Francisco run defense that’s badly missing DeMeco Ryans? Of course, the media will certainly focus on other narratives. Taylor Swift (and Stavros Halkias) in the AFC, for example, or Detroit’s possible storybook Super Bowl in the NFC. Let’s dive into how my NFL betting model is handicapping the 2024 Conference Championships before I identify my top early NFL picks. Take a look at additional expert picks!
My model is built using expected points added (EPA), mainly from this year, but previous seasons are factored into a quarterback’s weighted average. In the Divisional Round, the model felt confident about four teams: the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers. It also favored the Detroit Lions slightly more than the opening number (6). It wasn’t a profitable week for spread bettors, but I can’t fault the model for its confidence in Buffalo. Sean McDermott, Josh Allen and Tyler Bass committed a comedy of errors that took Buffalo out of the running.
NFL Betting Model Early Picks: AFC & NFC Conference Championships
Early NFL Picks: Handicapping the 2024 NFL AFC & NFC Conference Championships
Chiefs-Ravens Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Chiefs: +145 | Ravens: -175
Chiefs +3 | Ravens -3
Odds via NFL Betting Model
Chiefs: +285 | Ravens: -285
Chiefs +9 | Ravens -9
Chiefs-Ravens AFC Championship Pick
The Baltimore Ravens will host the Kansas City Chiefs in this year’s AFC Championship Game. The model correctly loved the Ravens last week, and they covered the closing number (-9.5) and came through for our teaser (-3.5). The model also favors the Ravens this week, again by a wider margin than the market, this time listing Baltimore as a 9-point favorite, giving us six points of edge on the market.
The model believes in the Ravens because of their rushing offense and ing defense. Baltimore’s rushing offense, which the model ranks third (+0.02 EPA/play) should benefit from facing the Chiefs’ 28th-ranked rushing defense (-0.03 EPA allowed/play). Baltimore’s offensive line also ended the regular season ranked fifth in run-block win rate (72%) while Kansas City’s defensive line ranked dead last in run-stop win rate (27%). The Chiefs coughed up 182 rushing yards against the Buffalo Bills, good for 4.7 yards per attempt. They only avoided disaster because of Buffalo’s missed field goal and bad play-calling (and, to their credit, a great offensive game from Patrick Mahomes and his receivers). However, Baltimore won’t make those mistakes.
Baltimore’s ing defense should terrify the Chiefs. Unlike Buffalo’s, which was riddled with injuries, Baltimore’s unit is near full health. Cornerback Marlon Humphrey should return this week and should start alongside Brandon Stephens. Safeties have been the true strength of this unit, however, as Kyle Hamilton (86 PFF grade), Marcus Williams (71.7) and Geno Stone (71.9) have all played well above replacement level. Baltimore’s ing defense ranks second in EPA allowed per play (-0.14 EPA allowed per dropback) thanks to their efforts. The unit should also benefit from sloppy conditions, as the early forecast for Sunday in Baltimore calls for a 50% chance of precipitation.
The Ravens will need a big game from their secondary because their rush may underperform. The Chiefs led the NFL in -block win rate (77%) while the Ravens ranked ninth in -rush win rate (46%). Interior offensive linemen Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith were three of the top four at the position in the metric this season. That said, Thuney suffered a pectoral injury against the Bills and could not return, putting his status in question for the AFC Championship Game. Tackles Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith both ended the regular season ranked 15th and 17th in individual -block win rate at their position, respectively, but their penchant for pre-snap penalties could prove costly in front of a Ravens home crowd that has helped force 19 false starts from opposing teams.
Lions-49ers Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Lions: +240 | 49ers: -300
Lions +6.5 | 49ers -6.5
Odds via NFL Betting Model
Lions: +350 | 49ers: -350
Lions +10.5 | 49ers -10.5
Lions-49ers NFC Championship Pick
The San Francisco 49ers won the right to host the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game thanks to a game-winning drive by Brock Purdy. Although the model thought the 49ers would cover, an early injury to Deebo Samuel, bad weather and exceptional throws from Green Bay’s Jordan Love kept things closer than it anticipated. Still, it correctly identified San Francisco’s rushing defense as vulnerable, and Aaron Jones ran wild.
The model loves the 49ers again this week, almost entirely because of the massive disparity between San Francisco’s ing offense and Detroit’s ing defense. The 49ers’ first-ranked ing offense (+0.29 EPA/dropback) should fry the 27th-ranked Lions’ ing defense (+0.1 EPA allowed/dropback) regardless of whether Samuel is available. The Lions have given up 300-plus ing yards in their last five games, including a pair of 375-plus yard games by Nick Mullens. Detroit’s rush hasn’t done much outside of splash plays from edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, as the unit ranked 26th in -rush win rate (36%) this year. However, they looked good against Tampa Bay’s 22nd-ranked offensive line (54% -block win rate), and they could flash against San Francisco’s 20th-ranked unit (56%).
The second story for this game is probably Detroit’s rushing offense versus San Francisco’s rushing defense. The Lions’ rushing offense ranks fourth (-0.01 EPA/play) while the 49ers’ rushing defense ranks 25th (-0.04). Meanwhile, the Lions’ offensive line ranked 13th in run-block win rate (71%), while the 49ers’ defensive line ranked 10th in run-stop win rate (32%). If the Lions can cash the 49ers on the ground like we saw Aaron Jones do last week, they can keep the ball away from Brock Purdy and San Francisco’s lethal ing attack.
Another reason the running game will prove pivotal is quarterback Jared Goff. He looked great at home (107.9 QBR) and in domes (108.9) this season but looked far less impressive on the road (89.4) and outdoors (82). These are meaningful splits for Goff — his career home (98.7) and domed (99.3) performances are far more impressive than his road (88.5) and outdoor (89.5) showings. Goff has played road four games versus San Francisco since entering the NFL, albeit none for Detroit nor any since 2020. His only road start in Santa Clara in the winter months (December 2019) saw him record a QBR of 85.7.
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2024 Early NFL Conference Championship Model Betting Picks
So how am I implementing the model’s insight into my betting card? Last week, we lost both of our teasers — Ravens -3.5/49ers -3.5 and Bills +3.5/Under 50.5 by the hook. I’m keeping things a bit simpler this week.
AFC Championship NFL Betting Model Pick for Chiefs-Ravens
You’ll find Baltimore trading between -3 and -3.5 in most spots, with public books charging about -120 or so for the -3. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is taking action on that line at -122. I bought the -3 for odds of -118 on DraftKings, where that line is now trading at -120.
I suspect the line will fluctuate between -2.5 and -3.5 throughout the week, but Kansas City’s injury issues could keep it from ever ticking below -3. You probably won’t get to buy the Ravens anywhere short of -150 (60%) on the moneyline, but the -175 (63.6%) is still a decent deal.
My advice: buy the -3 for anything at -120 or better. Consider laddering with alt lines as well. Baltimore -6 is trading at +136 on DraftKings, and while that’s a big ask, the model makes the Ravens a 6-point favorite on a neutral site. Add in home-field advantage and you’ve got -9, which is trading at +217 on DraftKings as well.
Early NFL AFC Conference Championship Pick: Ravens -3 -120, Ravens -6 +136 & Ravens -9 +217 at DraftKings
NFC Championship NFL Betting Model Pick for Lions-49ers
The Chiefs are trading at -6.5 pretty much everywhere. Most books have the juice stacked in San Francisco’s favor, too. The -6.5 will cost you -115 at BetMGM and -118 at DraftKings and FanDuel but only -112 at Pinnacle.
Again, this line is likely to fluctuate all week, probably between -6.5 and -7.5. That movement also likely hinges on news about Deebo Samuel — I doubt we cross into -7.5 territory unless he appears on track to play.
The model may favor San Francisco by a wider margin than it favors Baltimore, but we’re getting far more edge on the market for the latter game. While I’m not nearly as eager to put my action down on the 49ers, they’re undoubtedly the sharper side of this matchup.
The model would price a Ravens/Chiefs Super Bowl matchup (or a Ravens/Chiefs moneyline parlay) at odds of roughly -135. Most books are taking action on that moneyline parlay at odds of +109, but DraftKings currently lists it at +116. The same books are usually pricing the Super Bowl matchup market at odds of +110.
Buy this wager at odds of anything better than +100 (50%). That said, I don’t advise over-exposing yourself to Baltimore this weekend by playing both this parlay and the above bet, so pick one of these wagers and hope for the best.
Early NFL NFC Conference Championship Pick: Ravens ML/49ers ML +116 at DraftKings
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