Saturday football featuring two teams that shred indoors, including a Dallas Cowboys team scoring 30+ at home. Plenty of points are expected with a Detroit Lions team looking to continue a recent trend of high scoring indoor games. All the money seems to be pouring in on the over, yet the total has since dropped 1.5 points down to 52 at some books. That’s still plenty of room for Dak Prescott and Jared Goff to work their respective offenses, but don’t be shocked if this game falls short of a total while still providing plenty of drama. Here is our best Lions-Cowboys same-game parlay picks!
Lions-Cowboys NFL Same-Game Parlay Picks
Over/Under 52.5 Points
If you believe the data coming in from different books then it’s pretty clear the majority of money – “public” money – is coming in on the over. People appear to be racing to the window or phone screen pounding the over 52.5 in Dallas. It makes sense, right? The Cowboys are loaded at home putting up at least 30 points in each game to date.
They have arguably the game’s MVP now in Prescott throwing to CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, all without much of a run game. Outside of Dallas and San Francisco, no team has put up more points in the NFC this year than the Lions. Again, all signs point to the over.
Except it’s the NFL. No, the play won’t simply rest on that cliche rather the market movement suggesting we all missed something. This total opened at 53.5 and is down to 52 at PointsBet. While the majority of bets may fall on the over, the people who do this for a living – “sharp” money – is on the other side.
I don’t need to see anything more than reverse line movement – which is a term based off the belief that we have all the data in the first place – to be on the right side going under here. We start on BetMGM with an Under 52.5 play.
Jake Ferguson 50+ Receiving Yards (NFL Alt Player Prop)
The Cowboys have no problem broadcasting to the world that Prescott is going to get Lamb the ball. It has yet to be stopped as the standout receiver is dominating the NFL – all while being the main option with limited options around him. Not all are truly limited in skill, enter Jake Ferguson who should shine against the Lions. Look at the target share for Ferguson; he’s been thrown to eight times in each of his last four games.
There’s been a dedicated increase in getting Ferguson the ball over the past six weeks where he’s been a major focus or simply relief from extra coverage on Lamb. Prescott is going to throw the ball at home and the ball will find its way to Ferguson. Detroit is going to be so focused on wherever Lamb is, that Dallas will find secondary areas to attack in the middle of the field. He’s got a legit shot to hit 60+ but let’s keep it steady with a 50+ add here.
Michael Gallup 20+ Receiving Yards (NFL Alt Player Prop)
Copy and paste. The Cowboys are seeing Prescott average over 35 attempts at home this year. Even when this game falls under the total Prescott will be at or above 35 attempts. Not ALL of those are going to Lamb! Even subtracting the eight or nine attributed to Ferguson and Prescott is left with plenty of other throws to target other guys. One of them will be Michael Gallup, who only needs one grab to get 20 receiving yards against the Lions.
The issue has been targets, not so much what he’s done with the football. There’s going to be some volatility with a player who sees one to two targets for the most part, but the value comes in the form of a long catch. Gallup’s long receptions at home are 39, 13, 41, 14, 29, and 3 (second game of the year). He was held without a catch in another home game, but when he touches the ball he’s live to hit 20 yards. Two grabs tonight for Gallup seals the deal.
Final NFL Lions-Cowboys Same-Game Parlay Picks Today
Leg 1: Under 52.5
Leg 2: Jake Ferguson 50+ Receiving Yards (NFL Player Prop)
Leg 3: Michael Gallup 20+ Receiving Yards (NFL Player Prop)
= +750 at BetMGM Sportsbook
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